For those unfamiliar, the ADDM Network is a government program that tracks how common
autism is by looking at health and education records. Every two years, it gives us the most
reliable snapshot of how autism is impacting children across the country. And for more than two
decades, it has told the same story: the rate of autism keeps rising. But we were always told, it’s
just due to better diagnosing and expanding the definition of autism. The new numbers tell a
different story, though, and we need to start looking at the real reasons for this epidemic.

The new report shows a 17% jump in just two years—from 1 in 36 to 1 in 31. That’s a massive
increase in such a short time. Since the CDC started tracking autism in kids born in 1992, rates
have increased nearly fivefold. This isn’t a slow, steady trend. This is a runaway train.
And the children affected? Most of them aren’t just quirky or socially awkward. Nearly two-thirds
have an IQ below 85, meaning they’ll face lifelong challenges with learning, communication, and
independence. Many will need specialized care, educational supports, and social services for
decades—services that are already stretched thin in many communities.

The argument that we’re just getting better at spotting autism, or that doctors are diagnosing
milder cases, is contradicted by the data. The share of autistic children with average or
above-average IQs has actually gone down. The increase is driven by children with more
profound struggles, not kids who would have flown under the radar in years past.

And this isn’t just happening in isolated places. Long-term tracking in states that have
participated in the ADDM Network since it began in 2000—like New Jersey, Georgia, Arizona,
and Maryland—shows that autism has increased dramatically across the board. In Georgia, for
example, the rate went from 1 in 153 to 1 in 31—a fivefold increase.

Even more concerning is the shift among racial and ethnic groups. Autism now affects children
of color—Black, Hispanic, Asian, and Multiracial—at higher rates than White children, by as
much as 40%. And their autism is often more severe. This wasn’t always the case. Arguing that
White children would have less access to diagnostic services, and thus a lower autism rate,
than minority children is far-fetched. It’s a clear sign that culturally diverse communities are now
facing the brunt of this crisis.

Perhaps most chilling of all, in several areas, including California, 4-year-olds are showing
higher autism rates than 8-year-olds. That means the next wave of data could reveal even
higher rates in the years ahead.

So here’s the question we all need to ask: What is the real reason this is happening?

More and more researchers are pointing to environmental factors as a likely piece of the
puzzle. That doesn’t mean just air pollution or pesticides—it includes anything in the modern
world that may affect brain development in babies and young children, from chemicals to
infections to the combination of multiple exposures over time.

We owe it to our children to find out. That means more research of the right kind, the kind that
addresses the true causes of autism. Pretending this is just a matter of better or broader
diagnoses won’t help prevent new cases or lessen their severity.

Autism is now one of the biggest public health challenges facing our country. And its growth in
urgency has been influenced by a misguided interpretation of why. That needs to change.

This crisis is not going away. It’s growing. And unless we listen to what the rising prevalence is
saying, we’ll all pay the price—not just in dollars, but in lost potential, broken families, and
children who deserve a better future.