We're pleased to excerpt an important article from David Foster that clarifies the CDC blame game regarding a cyclical measles resurgence. You can subscribe to David's Substack for free to enjoy his content.

By David Foster

Is Vaccine Hesitancy Causing Measles Outbreaks?

According to the CDC, and as repeated by most media outlets, there is an increased frequency of measles outbreaks this year which is caused by lowered vaccination rates due to "vaccine hesitancy". But contrary to this narrative is the simple fact that uptake of MMR vaccine has remained remarkably consistent over the years, fluctuating between 92% to 95% and this year it is about 93%, so it seems bordering on absurd to claim that a 2% decrease since 2019 is causing measles outbreaks.

Remember the infamous 2014-15 Disneyland measles outbreak, and how it was used to justify SB277 which took away the philosophical exemption from vaccination in California? Were you aware that that 38% of the measles cases tested in the US that year were found to be caused by the vaccine itself?

"During the measles outbreak in California in 2015, a large number of suspected cases occurred in recent vaccinees. Of the 194 measles virus sequences obtained in the United States in 2015, 73 (38%) were identified as vaccine sequences."

This graphic from the CDC, which I have seen referenced in numerous articles, sure makes it look like measles is terrible this year:

But just scroll down on the same CDC page and you will see that while the number of projected measles cases in 2024 will be somewhat higher than an average year, it does not even come close to years we consider to be problematic, like 2014 and 2019:

Keep in mind we have just been through the annual “flu season”, so it highly unlikely that we will see similar numbers of measles cases continue through the spring and summer months.

The CDC states that “vaccination coverage among U.S. kindergartners has decreased from 95.2% during the 2019–2020 school year to 93.1% in the 2022–2023 school year, leaving approximately 250,000 kindergartners at risk each year over the last three years.”

Then the media runs with this narrative with headlines like:

US has already had more measles cases in 2024 than all of 2023

U.S. measles cases rise to at least 64 so far in 2024 — more than all of 2023

US sees surge in measles cases as health experts plead for more vaccinations

See how this works?

Now go back and re-read the previous quote from the CDC about “vaccination coverage”…does anything stand out to you? What was the vaccination rate for measles back in 2019? It was 95.2%, and has dropped to 93.1% in 2022-2023 and this decrease is being blamed for the increased outbreaks in 2024.

Look again at the graph of measles cases per year…2019 was the year with the most measles cases since 2000 (and actually since 1992).

Again, what was the vaccination rate for measles in 2019?  Read the full article with graphics at David Foster's Substack.

David Foster is an IT engineer with BS degrees in Math and Psychology, both with emphasis on statistical methods and experimental design. He has followed vaccine safety issues for over 25 years, first as an obsessive hobby and then as a parent.