A paper by Australian National University scholar Maathu Ranjan, who is on study leave from her role as a senior actuary at the National Disability Insurance Agency that oversees the scheme, shows autism rates have risen notably in developed nations over the past 10 years.

But the increase has been sharper in Australia than in other countries with comparable economic and health systems such as the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom….

“It is plausible that the growth of prevalence rates above the global average in Australia can be attributed to the financial incentives created by government policy, specifically the implementation of the NDIS.”…

The Cost of Autism

The review was given to disability ministers this month but will not be publicly released until chief ministers discuss it at national cabinet later this year.

They will seek reforms to make the scheme more sustainable given projections that its annual cost will soar to more than $100 billion [$64 B U.S.] by 2032, in part due to a higher-than-forecast number of children joining with autism.

More than 75 per cent of NDIS participants under 18, and 45 per cent overall, have autism or developmental delay, which can often precede an autism diagnosis.

“No Longer Rare”

Ranjan said neurodiversity and autism were no longer rare, and health, education and employment systems needed to reflect that – a view shared by NDIS architect Bruce Bonyhady, who is reviewing the scheme and has called for better support for children with autism in mainstream settings.

Ranjan’s research, which has not been peer reviewed, quotes international studies that show autism prevalence rates of one in 36 children in the United States, one in 50 children in Canada, and one in 57 children in the United Kingdom. In Australia, it is about one in 25.

All this follows on the footsteps of an article published on Nov 9^th by the Medical Republic.

MBS shake-up needed to support autism care 

The RACGP [Royal Australian College of General Practitioners] has provided input into the National Autism Strategy, which closed for submissions on 30 October, outlining the important role for GPs as the first port of call for autism care and the need for better remuneration.

A growing number of Australians are diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder each year – there was a 25% increase between 2015 and 2018.

In 2022, the federal government announced the development of the National Autism Strategy, which would cover “key reform areas including access to services, healthcare, education, and employment”.

The story in the Sydney Morning Herald tells us that the 25% increase in autism isn’t real; the numbers are skewed. There’s nothing to really be concerned about here.

One in 25

For those who claim that one in 25 children in Australia with autism is out of line compared to the rest of the world,  they need to look further.

It doesn’t help to make these comparisons. The U.K is notorious for WAITING LISTS for diagnosing autism. There are endless stories about children waiting months and even years to be evaluated for ASD.

IF you look specifically at Northern Ireland, their numbers top even Australia.

On May 18, 2023, The BBC News had the story, Autism: Highest rate on record of NI children with diagnosis

One in 20 schoolchildren in Northern Ireland has a diagnosis of autism, according to figures published by the Department of Health (DoH)

(That would also mean that one in every 12 boys has an autism diagnosis.)

No  one is talking about Ireland, but their numbers are just as bad.

This story was out on Dec 22, 2022: Cork Independent: Raised awareness from parents around autism

This kind of service is needed more now than it ever has been, as figures published this year by the Department of Health reveal that 14,000 children between the ages of four and 15 have an autism diagnosis - around 4.7 per cent of the school population [one in every 21 children, one in every 13 boys].

This is four times higher than the figure of just 1.2 per cent 10 years ago.

The U.S. may have a national average of one in 36, but that’s not the real story.

Several of the most populous states have much higher numbers that have to be taken into account.

In California, one in 22 children have autism, one in every 14 boys, according to the CDC.

In Florida, Nearly 5 percent [one in 20, one in 12 boys] of students have autism, according to a story published on Aug 8^th in the Boca Raton Tribune. 

Australia needs to wake up to the epidemic that shows no sign of slowing down. Autism number will continue to soar until they honestly and thoroughly address what’s causing it and stop all the denial.

More from Australia downplaying the numbers and blaming “financial incentives” for the increase in autism diagnoses.

Australia’s record high autism rates ‘plausibly’ linked to NDIS

“You need to use the government data, but you actually need to do a robust study and collect the case data and then compare it to government data and see what it tells you.”

Yes, they need do more.

Anne Dachel is Media Editor for Age of Autism.

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