Thanks to British scientist and researcher Michael J Cook for examining Anthony Fauci’s claim that the risk of dying of Covid-19 is 20 times higher for the unvaccinated against the unvaccinated based on a Texas Department State Health Service paper. Cook comments:
By Michael J Cook
Anthony Fauci claims that the risk of dying is 20 times higher for unvaccinated people.
Analysis of: COVID-19 Cases And Deaths by Vaccination Status,
Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) November 8, 2021.
The DSHS reports key findings that include:
- From Sep 4 through Oct 1, 2021 the rate of deaths in unvaccinated people was 20 times higher than fully vaccinated people, with a range of 12 to 55 times higher depending on age.
- From Jan 15, 2020 through Oct 1, 2021 the rate of deaths in unvaccinated people was 40 times higher than for vaccinated people, with a range of 30 to 99 times higher risk depending on age. Tables 5 and 6,
Tables 6 and 8 give the total number of COVID-19 fatalities in the study. These are compared to data published by the Texas DSHS (Additional data: Fatalities over time by County)
Also the tables give the number of fatalities and the fatality rate for different age groups. This allows calculation of the population in each age group included in the study. Total numbers of deaths were calculated using population distribution and totals for Texas were compared to other published sources. Also, the authors limitations of the study were reviewed for major issues.
Problems identified in the report.
1) For the period Jan 15, 2020 through Oct 1, 2021, the DSHS Fatalities report has total COVID-19 deaths for Texas of 40,782 whereas the subject report has only 26,704. A total of 14,078 deaths (35%) are not included. How many were vaccinated and unvaccinated?
2) For the period Sep 14 2020 through Oct 1, 2021, the DSHS Fatalities report has COVID-19 deaths totalling 7,190 with the subject report having only 4262 deaths. A total of 2,928 deaths (41%) are not included. Again, there is no data on vaccination status.
3) The study defined the unvaccinated population by subtracting the number of fully vaccinated for the age group from the entire Texas population. This does not comprehend the people that had a single vaccination. Our World Data show that the distribution unvaccinated group was from 59.1%-59.6% the Texas population during the study with a total of 11,761,200 unvaccinated compared to 8,112,177 computed from the study data. Since the unvaccinated number is incorrect (65% not included in the study), then the death rate computed from it is incorrect.
4) The authors state that missing or misspelled names or birth dates may lead to some vaccinated people being incorrectly defined as unvaccinated instead of vaccinated. Since the study data was obtained from merging 3 data sources including National and State data bases there could be large numbers of data entry errors. This could bias the study. How many records were eliminated and what was the ratio of fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated and unvaccinated?
5) Since the vaccination status is not accurately known with 65% of the population not included the other claims regarding cases rates cannot be defined by the study methodology.
Texas COVID-19 fatalities (Link to Fatalities over time by county): https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/AdditionalData.aspx
National populations by age group: https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/
State population statistics: https://www.statista.com/statistics/183457/united-states--resident-population/
Michael J Cook had an international career in the semi-conductor industry. Since developing Lyme disease has been an independent researcher publishing in medical journals on Lyme disease testing technology, epidemiology and statistical analysis of infectious diseases.