No Means No
Part 2: The Autism Tsunami an Interview with Mark Blaxill

An Interview with Mark Blaxill on the Autism Tsunami: Part 1

Mark Blaxill Chilren's MarchNOTE:  We'll have an audio file to accompany Anne's transcription.  This is part 1 of a 5 part series. Thank you.

By Anne Dachel

Mark Blaxill Autism Tsunami Part 1

Question 1: Tell us about your study,
Autism Tsunami: the Impact of Rising Prevalence on the Societal Cost of Autism in the United States.  What motivated you and the other authors to look into the future impact of autism? 

Mark: My motivation has been 20 years long. (Inaudible)…and it was pretty obvious for too long, the numbers were exploding.

California and everywhere you looked, the numbers were going up, and that invalidated the orthodox story line.

(Inaudible) Mark dismissed the official claims of better diagnosing/diagnostic substitution.

And we’ve known that for a long time, Anne.

I first started writing about that in 2001, 2003, in that area. I started writing in the Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders when they started trying to blame it on diagnostic substitution.

It was obvious that the work that they were doing …(inaudible)

I wrote to them. I got some colleagues to write. …

The authors that argued that it was diagnostic substitution had to retract their findings because it was obvious that they were arithmetically wrong.

The rate of autism was going up, and the rate of intellectual disability was not declining.

Then I wrote a paper that was published in 2004, What’s going on? The question of time trends in autism.

I argued that the rates were going up and it was real, all over the world, particularly in the United States and the UK.

I know you focus very heavily on the United States and the UK both of which have rates that are going up.

And then I kept writing about it.

I wrote a book called The Age of Autism.

I wrote another book called Denial, both with Dan Olmsted.

One in 2010 and another in 2017.

You’re kind of screaming at the universe, please pay attention. This is a crisis.

Anne, you do this every day. I do this in longer cycle projects. We’re doing much of the same work.

One thing that happened is that Cindy Nevison, whom I’ve gotten to know pretty well, and she’s doing very good work. …on the environmental causes of autism.

She and I got together with a guy named Walter Zahorodny, who is the CDC’s man in New Jersey. And New Jersey has been reporting some of the highest rates of autism.

Walter, in his own way, is saying the same thing.

So we started writing a paper that was published in 2018 The three of us were co-authors.

I had been looking at the California numbers way back since 2001, some of the early days. Cindy had started looking at more recent numbers. We compiled our databases.

We got this article published that said, you know these rates are exploding and they’re real.

By the time we’re doing that in 2018, that’s 20 years after I first started looking. The numbers are scarily higher, and to your point, the increases have not slowed, if anything they look like they’re growing more rapidly. …

Cynthia and I wrote another paper called Diagnostic Substitutionagain showing that there’s no case that the increases are due to substitutes of intellectual disability.

When they published the California paper in 2018, which surprised me honestly, I was surprised because it goes against the orthodox narrative.

Good for the journal. They’ve been a pleasure to deal with because they’re interested in good evidence and good science, and we’ve tried to write it very rigorously.

As soon as that paper in 2018, I wrote the idea to Cindy and some others—hey, let’s do a cost of disease paper, because there is a literature on the cost of disease.

Most and almost all of it, until very recently, almost all it has assumed that the rates of autism prevalence are constant, which is a spectacular error.

First of all, they tend the latest numbers so they underestimate the cost of autism in children, and then they assume that whatever rates we’re observing in children, we’re observing in the elderly. So they will assign all those costs, and they’ll put a model together that’ll say, this is the cost of autism in elderly.

And they’ll add all that up, and they’ll come up with a number that’s too high for the total cost, but that underestimates the cost in children and dramatically overstates—makes up fansome numbers for cost in the elderly that don’t exist.

So that’s an error, foundational error in most cost of disease study, and we sought to correct that. That was the idea.

Part 2 follows tomorrow.

Comments

mcdvoice

Sign up to speak and bring up the issue of school funding for ASD by reading them the title and the abstract from the paper. Tell them you will make copies available to every board member. Most of these meetings are video recorded so the message will get out to many more people. Make contact with the anti-mask, anti-Covid vaccine parents there. Personally show them the overlap of the study's hockey stick graph and a vaccine use timeline. https://mcdvoice.me/

TOB

It is good to have the link to the *Diagnostic Substitution* paper. I used to hear this BS argument all the time, and it's great that Mark did the work to refute it.

Julie

Bill, I'm sorry to hear of your health issue and I wish you the best. I am also sorry to hear that you dispute the health crisis that is what children's health has become, and not just for this generation. You can argue figures but I can argue what I observe. I started teaching primary (elementary) school children forty years ago. When I began teaching (very early 1980s), the most serious (and only) ongoing health issue a child in my class might have had was asthma. I cannot remember ever having more than one child per year with asthma. This was the case for about eight years. I then stopped teaching to stay at home with my children when they were young. When I returned to teaching approximately seven years later, I began to see the start of a huge increase in health issues/learning problems, speech disorders, autism, sound sensitivities, allergies, and I began to see children with health issues that I had never even heard of before. I am not talking about a diagnosis that was on paper but that I didn't see in the child; I am talking about what I witnessed. Older teachers know this; the arguments from them are simply about what has caused it. Many don't even question the causes but I don't know any older teacher who denies that children's health is in crisis. Teachers simply feel powerless to do anything about it. Schools are struggling to afford specialised staff to work with these children and money that was once used to help with literacy or numeracy has been funnelled into helping children with more serious conditions
I left the district I once lived in about sixteen years ago. At the time, we had one child with anaphylaxis come in from interstate to our school of 670 children. A couple of the staff had to be trained in the use of EpiPens for this rare and strange (to us) condition. I recently returned to the same district. In a school of 750, there are 16 children with anaphylaxis. Of course, these days, every staff member is trained in the administration of Epipens. Yes, the numbers could be exaggerated. If overdiagnosis was the problem, we might possibly have seen a doubling of the numbers but we are talking about a sixteen fold increase. I'm afraid that what you think is happening is not the case. If you are interested, why don't you volunteer to work in classrooms around where you live. That way, you could see for yourself what is really going on. That way, you could see the difference between now and what it was like when you went to school. Please try various schools. There are differences in the number of children with serious conditions (epilepsy, diabetes, seizures, childhood cancers, learning needs) from one area to another but no area has the health of the children in the early 1980s. I am talking from the perspective of a primary school Classroom and Learning Support Teacher who has travelled quite a bit, worked in over 100 schools, worked in different cities, different states and more than one country.
Incidentally, I recently heard a woman who had worked as a school principal at a school where there had been a high number of unvaccinated children. She commented that not one of the children who needed to access specialised support was unvaccinated. I wish you were right but from my observations, you are not. The problems that children today present with were simply not around in my first eight years of teaching.

Angus Files

Sadly there has been no reduction to the kids diagnosed with autism but we still fight .Many thanks to Dan and all his timeless work Mark AOA and all...we fight on ,and on, and on ,and on.

Pharma For Prison

MMR RIP

Emmaphiladelphia

Right now local school board meeting attendance is HOT.

Huge numbers of parents are protesting to the school boards over masks, Covid jabs, and CRT. Use this to our advantage. Sign up to speak and bring up the issue of school funding for ASD by reading them the title and the abstract from the paper. Tell them you will make copies available to every board member. Most of these meetings are video recorded so the message will get out to many more people. Make contact with the anti-mask, anti-Covid vaccine parents there. Personally show them the overlap of the study's hockey stick graph and a vaccine use timeline. Help them make the connection with what they are already motivated to fight for.

Anna Quandt

Thank you Mark. I have been following you for 16 years. Back then I believed that you, Dan and others would help us find a way out of this epidemic within a “few” years.

My son is now thirty. He and Josiah Polhemus have written a screenplay about growing up with “high functioning” autism. Josiah worked at a disability film school for 8 years. Working day by day with young people on the spectrum, and contrasting them with “The good Doctor” portrayals, Josiah asked “ Why doesn’t someone tell the truth?” He found my son, Peter, who wanted to tell his truth.

Thank you, and all of you at AOA, for telling the truth. You are my heroes.

Bill

"autism" and "intellectual disabilities" are over diagnosed. So are "mental illnesses" and "learning disabilities". As a person with a rare life threatening medical disorder named Neuro-fibromatosis I am sick of this triviality over over diagnosed conditions. Yes dozens environmental causes are contributing to a small increase in autism there is no denying that. I saw a cringe worthy Easters Seals commercial that said "We are the 20%" a term used to describe that organization acceptance of a very liberal definition of disability this organization used to be one that employed the moderate to severe disabled persons now a lot of service they offer are now for dubious "mental illness" and equaly dubious Veterans Administration related services.

Bob Moffit

"Mark: My motivation has been 20 years long. (Inaudible)…and it was pretty obvious for too long, the numbers were exploding."

Yes indeed … it has been a long...frustrating...20 years of struggle .. greatly appreciated all you, Dan and AOA have done for my now beloved 21 year old grandson .. who remains nonverbal today .. having just graduated and the bus has stopped coming.

If HALF of the resources .. effort .. diligence .. BILLION DOLLAR finances awarded to COVID had been awarded your early warning of the UNFOLDING AUTISM PANDEMIC TWENTY YEARS AGO … thousands of children may have been saved.

God bless you and yours.

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