Deal With It?
New Book Autism Essentials Features Team of Experts

Autism Tsunami: the Impact of Rising Prevalence on the Societal Cost of Autism in the United States

Breaking newsCongratulations to authors Mark Blaxill (Age of Autism Editor-At-Large), Toby Rogers and Cynthia Nevison.

Blaxill, M., Rogers, T. & Nevison, C. Autism Tsunami: the Impact of Rising Prevalence on the Societal Cost of Autism in the United States. J Autism Dev Disord (2021).


The cost of ASD in the U.S. is estimated using a forecast model that for the first time accounts for the true historical increase in ASD. Model inputs include ASD prevalence, census population projections, six cost categories, ten age brackets, inflation projections, and three future prevalence scenarios. Future ASD costs increase dramatically: total base-case costs of $223 (175–271) billion/year are estimated in 2020; $589 billion/year in 2030, $1.36 trillion/year in 2040, and $5.54 (4.29–6.78) trillion/year by 2060, with substantial potential savings through ASD prevention. Rising prevalence, the shift from child to adult-dominated costs, the transfer of costs from parents onto government, and the soaring total costs raise pressing policy questions and demand an urgent focus on prevention strategies. Read here:

The Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders is the leading peer-reviewed, scholarly periodical focusing on all aspects of autism spectrum disorders and related developmental disabilities.

Published monthly, JADD is committed to advancing the understanding of autism, including potential causes and prevalence (e.g., genetic, immunological, environmental); diagnosis advancements; and effective clinical care, education, and treatment for all individuals. Studies of diagnostic reliability and validity, psychotherapeutic and psychopharmacological treatment efficacy, and mental health services effectiveness are encouraged. JADD also seeks to promote the well-being of children and families by publishing scholarly papers on such subjects as health policy, legislation, advocacy, culture and society, and service provision as they pertain to the mental health of children and families. Review articles are solicited in targeted areas of special interest; book and media reviews provide targeted updates on important new materials; and the Ask the Editor column serves as a forum for addressing timely questions of relevance to JADD’s broad readership.


dear MFP you’re so rude

Dear MFP,

AOA strongly opposes - OPPOSES - eugenics.

Look at how group homes treat ASD adults on YouTube. Horrible stuff.

Look at how Erin Polk (Kreed’s World) cared for Kreed.

The economy will massively suffer - if there’s not enough healthy citizens.

You’d rather support barbaric socialism/communism than autism prevention?

Kim for middle finger person

Hi, Middle Finger Person. You are exactly wrong. We LOVE our kids - and we want help and supports for people with autism. The SYSTEM wants to ignore them - do nothing for them - exclude them. We want the opposite. We wants supports for everyone on the Spectrum from Asperger's to the most severely affected. Including you, if you are on the spectrum. Kim


This is disgusting. You want to eradicate people with autism because we’re “not good for the economy”. You value money over human lives. This is eugenics, and completely unethical and immoral. You all disgust me.

Angus Files

On you go Michael were with you...

U.S. Olympic swimming star Michael Andrew confirmed that he has not and will not receive the COVID-19 vaccine prior to the Tokyo Olympic Games.

Andrew, 22, reaffirmed his stance on getting vaccinated during remote media availability on Thursday from the U.S. Olympic swimming team’s training camp in Hawaii.

“I am not fully vaccinated, I’m not vaccinated,” Andrew told media via Zoom. “My reason behind it is, for one, it was kind of a last moment, I didn’t want to put anything in my body that I didn’t know how I would potentially react to.

“As an athlete on the elite level, everything you do is very calculated and understood. For me, in the training cycle, especially leading up to trials, I didn’t want to risk any days out. There were periods where you take a vaccine, you have to deal with some days off.”

Pharma For Prison



The hockey stick graph speaks volumes.

1986- National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act signed into law. Pharma protected from vaccine injury liability.

1987- 1989- New children's vaccine schedule rolled out with added vaccines, including Hep B given to newborns on day one. The overall mercury amount was increased.

1999- EIS Verstraeten report presented to CDC leadership. Showed increased relative risk for autism and other conditions.

2000- Emergency Simpsonwood meeting called to "discuss" the Verstraeten report


Simpsonwood meeting June 2000 (has link to full transscript)


The "hockey stick" begins its dramatic ascent right after 1986. Coincidence?


I am pretty sure I read that autism rate in rich California counties is decreasing while rate in poorer counties is increasing... As more and more parents have to pull their children from public schools, there may be less need to force vaccinate the little kids and autism rates may actually go down - due to Covid, no less


The cost for the care of services for people with Autism as with other medical or therapeutic costs will keep rising. The important factor to me is that in states willing to disclose the actual numbers of kids with Autism, it has Increased to 1 in every 14 children so far with 1 in 8 kids having special needs as well. When I first began researching this it was 1 in 10,000, then 1 in 2,500, 1 in 250, 1 in 99, 1 in 59, 1 in 35, 1 in 22, now 1 in 14........


The Blaxill article references the McDonald and Paul study "Timing of Increased Autistic Disorder Cumulative Incidence":

It has the "hockey stick" graph identifying the autism changepoint in the late 1980s. The authors say they focused on autistic disorder (AD) because it's one of the most severe, recognizable and readily diagnosed forms of autism.

Kathy Sincere

A truly magnificent, frightening research paper. It should run on the front page of the NYT and the Wall Street Journal - if we actually had a free press.

I would like AoA followers to know that Dr. Cindy Nevison is also a tireless advocate for Medical Freedom and Informed Consent here in Colorado. She is a brilliant, kind and outspoken woman who has researched autism and tried in vain to educate our state legislators that there is, indeed, an autism epidemic.

Thank you, Cindy, for all you do!

Tim Lundeen

@bill Have you read Blaxill/Olmstead's book, Denial: How Refusing to Face the Facts about Our Autism Epidemic Hurts Children, Families, and Our Future? Excellent, highly recommended.

Angus Files

Superb many thanks


Pharma For Prison


Jerry Martinez

Ms Nevison, Mr Rogers and Mr Blaxill, thank you so much for being are academic warriors and fighting for us. Well done! Blessings.


Oh Bill...
It's not over diagnosis.


Oh Bill...
It's not diagnosis.


Autism over-diagnosis means more people are eligible for services the may not need or not need as much intervention from those services than the are going to receive. This cost Billions of dollars per year. When it come to legitimately and significantly disabled children including "autism" I wonder how many cases are really just Fetal Alcohol Syndrome and Down syndrome that doctors missed. Even now countries I would have guessed would be more strict in the diagnosis of developmental disability and mental illness like Japan or Russia are beginning to over diagnosis autism to an economically detrimental effect.
We need large scale "universal basic income" for those with autism let us says 5000 per month so money used in speech or physio therapy or some thing related like child care or other things so that this money is not loss in a sea of government bureaucracy and corporate greed further increasing cost. Let the parents decide on how to use the money.

Bob Moffit

How's that definition of insanity go .. something about doing the same thing over and over again getting the same results every time?

Still with Trump

Thanks Mark, Toby, and Cynthia. As always, the United States leads the world with Autism as our school systems now rank about 35th.

The 30+ year cost of having something 50 times more common than the worse year of polio is beginning to add up.

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