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Professor Jonathan Rose: The Cure May Be Deadlier Than the Disease. Much Deadlier.

History news networkNote: Thank you to Jonathon Rose, frequent AofA contributor for allowing us to excerpt that ran on the George Washington University History News Network: Welcome to the History News Network (which is popularly known as HNN). Our mission is to help put current events into historical perspective. Given how public opinion is shaped today, whipsawed emotionally on talk shows this way and that in response to the egos of the guests, the desire for ratings by the hosts and the search for profits by media companies and sponsors, historians are especially needed now. They can help remind us of the superficiality of what-happens-today-is-all-that-counts journalism. Each week HNN features up to a dozen fresh op eds by prominent historians. Our archives, extending over the past decade, include thousands of well-researched pieces.

By Jonathan Rose

Jonathan Rose is William R. Kenan Professor of History at Drew University. His books include Readers’ Liberation, The Literary Churchill: Author, Reader, Actor, and The Intellectual Life of the British Working Classes.

In the midst of the COVID-19 epidemic, we are being urged by governments and the media to “trust the experts” – that is, public health officials. It sounds straightforward and obvious, but historians are experts too. Of course our expertise is different, but what it tells us, and what we should communicate to the public, is that “trusting the experts” isn’t nearly as simple as it may seem.

By definition, experts know much more about a given subject than the rest of us: that’s their great strength. But experts can also suffer from tunnel vision: though they know their own specialties, they may fail to look left or right and see the larger contexts, consequences, or costs of their actions. (One antidote to tunnel vision is a liberal education that introduces students to a broad range of disciplinary perspectives, but liberal education is now very much in retreat, as humanities enrollments plummet and vocational classes are filled to capacity.) The single-minded mission of a public health expert is to stop the spread of disease, which is of course an important priority. But if he is not trained in history or economics, he may not realize how relevant these bodies of knowledge are to the general health of society, and he may not appreciate the full costs of drastic public health measures.

The current measures against coronavirus are bringing our economy to a frightening halt. Following the crash of 1929, it took more than three years for the US economy to hit rock bottom: now we are on track to reach that nadir in a matter of weeks. Never in history has an economic catastrophe descended so swiftly. “The speed and magnitude of the labor market’s decline is unprecedented,” warned Constance Hunter, head economist at the accounting firm KPMG. “We didn’t see this in the global financial crisis. We didn’t see this in the Great Depression. There’s been a total decimation of consumption,” which, she concluded, would soon destroy 20 million jobs. That prediction was published on April 2: by April 16, 22 million Americans had filed unemployment claims.

Dartmouth economist David Blanchflower, a policymaker for the Bank of England during the 2008 crash, now calculates that unemployment will swiftly rise to 21 percent in the UK and 32 percent in the US. (The respective numbers during the Great Depression were 15.4 and 24.9 percent.) The World Trade Organization predicts that global trade may shrink by almost a third, roughly equivalent to the contraction of 1929-1932 but far more rapid. Even relatively short lockdowns could have disastrous consequences. Austria now plans to reopen most shops by May 2, but by then 30 percent of them will be out of business, according to Barbara Kolm, vice president of the Austrian National Bank. We tell ourselves that Prohibition was an intolerable infringement of personal freedom, though we only gave up the right to a Merlot with dinner. We now acquiesce to vastly more oppressive restrictions that are causing far more economic damage.

Bill Gates (who is no public health expert) and Dr. Anthony Fauci (who obviously is a public health expert, but neither a historian nor an economist) have brushed aside the prospect of another depression. Dr. Fauci dismisses the loss of 10 million jobs as merely “inconvenient”, and says “I just don’t understand” why all 50 states are not locking down their citizens -- perhaps because he does not understand how terrible the last depression was. Today it is surrounded by rosy memories: FDR reassuring the nation with his Fireside Chats, the WPA putting people back to work, and some terrific Hollywood movies. But we tend to overlook the darker side of the New Deal. To take just one example which isn’t much taught in our classes, the US government deported as many as 1.8 million Mexican-Americans to Mexico, though the majority were US citizens. The exact numbers are debated, but in any case they were far greater than the Japanese-Americans interned during the Second World War (120,000) or the American Indians removed from their land by Andrew Jackson (80,000). Begun under the Hoover administration, the deportations continued under Roosevelt, with the aim of saving jobs for Americans (as long as they weren’t Mexican-Americans).

Historically, economic prosperity tends to make human beings tolerant and peace-loving, whereas sharp economic reverses impel us to grab resources from others, persecute scapegoats, surrender to despots, and wage war. The economic turmoil that engulfed Italy after the First World War led directly to the triumph of fascism, an ideology that Benito Mussolini had invented just three years earlier. Under the New Economic Policy, Soviet Russia enjoyed a partial economic recovery and relative peace, but when industrial expansion stalled and food shortages developed in the cities, Stalin ruthlessly collectivized the land, killing millions in manmade famines. In the 1928 German election, the last one before the Depression struck, the Nazis won just 2.6 percent of the vote, far less than what the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland polls today; by 1933 Hitler had secured absolute power.

The Great Depression gave rise to tyranny, aggression, and mass murder throughout the world. Democracy was snuffed out in central and eastern Europe. Under severe economic stress, the Axis powers pursued a common solution: the brutal conquest of territory to establish self-sufficient economic spheres. Japan invaded China and Southeast Asia, Mussolini coveted North African colonies. As Adam Tooze has shown in The Wages of Destruction, Nazi leaders planned to carve out a vast empire in Eastern Europe and Russia, plundering resources and food supplies – and that, they calculated, would require the elimination of 30 million mouths to feed. Exterminating the Jews would get them only part way to that number, so they would also have to kill off millions of Poles, Russians, and Ukrainians. In fact the actual casualties of the Second World War were still greater: 70 to 85 million dead, two-thirds of them civilians, most if not all of them ultimately the result of the Great Depression. Without that trigger, there would have probably been no global war and no Holocaust (whom did the Nazis blame for the Depression?), and Hitler would have remained the obscure leader of a tiny fringe group.

M. Harvey Brenner – a public health expert who was also trained in history, economics, and sociology – recognized that even mild recessions can kill. Drawing on American health statistics from 1940 to 1973, he calculated that a one percent rise in unemployment over six years produced 36,887 excess deaths, mainly from cardiovascular disease, suicide, homicide, and cirrhosis. His projections were confirmed by separate studies of Britain, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. Extrapolating from Brenner’s estimates, political scientist Toby Rogers calculates that even a 5 percent increase in unemployment over 5 years (the Great Depression lasted more than a decade) would kill nearly 300,000 Americans. If unemployment reaches 20 percent, as some economists are predicting, the result would be almost a million deaths in the United States alone, far more than any plausible estimate of COVID casualties. But whereas COVID deaths are highly publicized, these “deaths of despair” would be invisible: the coroners’ certificates would identify the causes as heart disease, murder, suicide, and so on, not economic collapse.

If you question whether the measures taken against coronavirus today will kill democracy, the answer is that they are already killing democracy. Recently Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister, used the crisis to win emergency powers to rule by degree, send parliament home, cancel elections, and jail individuals for up to five years for spreading “fake news” (which might, of course, be interpreted to mean criticizing Viktor Orban). Similar arbitrary powers have been granted to President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, Bolivia has postponed elections, Thailand has cracked down on journalists critical of the government, lockdowns everywhere effectively ban protest demonstrations, and even the Western democracies are creating intrusive surveillance machinery. In Britain, the home of Magna Carta and George Orwell, neighbors are reporting neighbors to the police for jogging and hiking, which violate lockdown restrictions.

In Africa, government security forces have been brutalizing and in some cases killing citizens to enforce lockdowns. Throughout the Third World there are hundreds of millions living on a subsistence level, and for them lockdowns can mean starvation: they cannot stop working or work from home. Oxfam International estimates that more than 500,000,000 people worldwide could be submerged below the poverty line. “I would rather risk being beaten by policemen,” says a Kampala taxi driver, “I can’t stay home and just watch my hungry children crying.” The Institute for Security Studies in South Africa has warned that “the risks posed by continued, illegitimate state violence…could be as great as those brought by the pandemic.” You may argue that these are temporary measures justified by a health emergency, but history suggests that “emergency” restrictions have a way of becoming permanent.  Read more at History News Network: The Cure May Be Deadlier Than the Disease. Much Deadlier.

Comments

Bayareamom

YouTube has removed the video of the two Bakersfield, CA physicians mentioned in this thread. 23ABC has a follow-up written about this issue, along with the link to the video:

https://www.turnto23.com/news/coronavirus/accelerated-urgent-care-doctors-recommend-lifting-shelter-in-place-order

Bayareamom

Am repeating this link here:

BREAKING:

Two Kern County physicians have given a press briefing regarding the statistics that they now have for CA and other states as well, re COVID death rates, etc.

As one physician states, the numbers they have for CALIFORNIA now show that COVID is completely widespread in CA, but yet, the death rate/actual illness IS EXTREMELY LOW. He then asks rhetorically, if then, the locking up of perfectly healthy people is justified, nwo that the numbers are in:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU


I am SO very glad to see physicians/nurses coming out swinging against the lockdown. As these two physicians are doing, they are providing their names/employment source and are no longer speaking anonymously.

This country needs to get back to work.

Tim Lundeen

There is no empirical evidence for these lockdowns -- https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/?fbclid=IwAR2xT38-e8fZMz3Ug1YeZy-fL4tIbGp2QcBZQHdlBxFtqo9oJYqi-3PHpd4

COVID-19 deaths are due to air pollution -- Harvard study -- "A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in the COVID-19 death rate." https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid-pm

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation?fbclid=IwAR0PFJ4DXF7qZsJyZz80JZCThcHIie01bhDSBKVP-3xsr_OU_OiQdEu7ZDU

Jenny Allan

"The World is being wrecked by unelected spokespeople and lobbiests." Pogo has summed it up in one sentence.
Last night the BBC late news (UK) devoted the entire programme to the Oxford Vaccine Group's development of a Covid-19 vaccine. This vaccine was developed with help from £millions from Bill Gates, and suspiciously was apparently ready BEFORE the pandemic.The first clinical trial volunteers were pictured, happy to be helping to save the world. Our Government Health Secretary Matt Hancock has told us we would remain in lockdown until the vaccine was rolled out. We were told millions of doses would be ready 'by the autumn'.

The BBC is very guilty of hyping up whatever it is told by the Government of the day, presently the Tories, in spite of supposedly being politically neutral, since it is funded by compulsory licence fees which we all pay, whatever our political persuasions. With vaccines, I have long suspected some pharma cash has found it's way into the BBC health presentations. Apparently anything is permissable where health is concerned, but vaccine manufacturers make £billions in profits and the BBC is not supposed to 'advertise' products which are manufactured by private corporations.

The Oxford Vaccine Group, (one of around 70 such groups racing to develop a Covid-19 vaccine), stands to make an absolute fortune if they can show the vaccine is both safe and effective. This in itself is an incentive to overlook or play down any adverse effects, and over state the efficacy. The 'control' group in the trials is not being given a saline or otherwise inert injection. Instead they are getting a vaccine for meningitis. How this is 'scientific' is completely beyond me, but the baseline they are using is that the meningitis vaccine is completely 'safe' . How on earth does this square with the the accepted wisdom that 'vaccines are unavoidably unsafe' is beyond me. Whatever these trials show, the resuts cannot be trusted, unless they use a genuine placebo for the control group.

All this blatant 'hype' took my breath away, so I was surprised to see Professor Andrew Pollard, head of the Oxford Vaccine Group, pontificating early this morning on the BBC. To my surprise he was actually 'playing down' the Covid-19 vaccine hype. We were already told earlier by wiser voices, a vaccine simply cannot be rolled out in the UK until 2021, at the earliest.

Ominously Prof Pollard, said the vaccine initially needed to be 'reserved' for 'vulnerable' groups like the elderly. I feel a 'guinea pig' coming on!! Not for ME Prof Pollard, Not for ME!

Pogo

Ben Davidson has also pointed out the cure is deadlier than the disease.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-2C27YLCGE
23,903 views in just two hours.

Tony Heller (an expert in data analysis) points out that the US is making the next winter wave worse for itself when it reinforces the flu season if there is insufficient herd immunity due to lock-down. He makes several other good points too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDkUS63Mx9E

Del Bigtree on the Highwire also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L22hboXffXY

The World is being wrecked by unelected spokespeople and lobbiests.

Angus Files

No lock down no problem x 8(in America) plus Sweden and others..

Tucker: Are coronavirus lockdowns working?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MuuA0azQRGQ&ab_channel=FoxNews

Pharma For Prison

MMR RIP

Kathy Sincere

@Jonathan Rose –

Thank you for this truly excellent article and for ALL you have written on AoA!

You are correct that I might say in response to the vaccine lobbyists, “Your liberty to brandish a needle ends at my skin.” That is EXACTLY what I said to the CO House and Elizabeth Sundari Kraft in my speech on March 22, 2017 at the hearing for HB1288 which I have copied below:

"I HAVE FOUR VACCINE INJURED CHILDREN, BUT I SPOKE ABOUT THEM AT THE PREVIOUS HOUSE HEARING AND IT DIDN'T HAVE MUCH IMPACT.

SO WHAT I'D LIKE TO ADDRESS TODAY IS THE "WRAP UP SESSION" THE PROPONENTS OF THIS BILL DID AT THE HEARING ON MARCH 13. WE DIDN'T REALLY GET A CHANCE TO DO A REBUTTLE ON THOSE POINTS.

CLARIFY THINGS SAID BY SUNDARI KRAFT - SHE'S ON THE NATIONAL BOARD OF VOICES FOR VACCINES. IT SEEMS LIKE EVERYTIME I HEAR SUNDARI SPEAK-ON TV OR AT THE CAPITOL - SHE'S FOND OF SAYING "YOUR RIGHT TO SWING YOUR FIST ENDS AT MY NOSE". THAT SOUNDED VERY PROFOUND, AND I REALLY WONDERED WHERE THAT PHRASE CAME FROM. HOW SHE USED IT - IT IMPLIED THAT MY RIGHT OF VACCINE REFUSAL ENDS AT HER RIGHT NOT TO BE HARMED.

WELL, ACTUALLY THIS IS AN OLD LEGAL PHRASE THAT WAS REFINED AND PUBLISHED IN AN ARTICLE IN THE HARVARD LAW REVIEW IN 1919 BY HARVARD LAW PROFESSOR ZECHARIAH CHAFEE WHO WAS AN OUTSPOKEN CHAMPION OF CIVIL LIBERTIES. HE USED THAT PHRASE IN A LEGAL DEFENSE HE WROTE FOR WAR PROTESTERS, TITLED "FREEDOM OF SPEECH IN WARTIME", IT WAS OFTEN QUOTED BY HIS FRIEND OLIVER WENDELL HOLMES WHO WAS ON THE SUPREME COURT AT THAT TIME.

THE OTHER ACTIVIST GROUP, LIKE VOICES FOR VACCINES, THAT TRIED TO TWIST THAT GREAT PHRASE TO THEIR ADVANTAGE WAS THE WOMENS CHRISTIAN TEMPERANCE LEAGUE DURING PROHIBITION. FOR DECADES IT WAS USED AT PROHIBITION RALLIES AND MEETINGS. ONE QUOTE WAS:" THE ONLY LEADING ARGUMENT URGED BY THE ANTI PROHIBITIONIST IS PERSONAL LIBERTY. WELL A GREAT MAN HAS SAID YOUR LIBERTY TO SWING YOUR ARM ENDS WHERE MY NOSE BEGINS. A MAN'S PERSONAL LIBERTY TO DRINK WHISKEY ENDS WHERE THE RIGHTS OF THE FAMILY AND COMMUNITY BEGIN."

IT SOUNDS FAMILIAR, DOESN'T IT? - JUST SUBSTITUTE "REFUSE VACCINATIONS" FOR "DRINK WHISKEY"- AND THE RIGHTS OF THE COMMUNITY. AGAIN, TRYING TO TIE PERSONAL RIGHTS TOGETHER WITH THE IDEA OF HARMING SOMEONE, A PROHIBITIONIST SAID 'I HAVE NO RIGHT TO THROW MY ARMS OUT IN A CROWD, FOR I MIGHT HIT SOMEBODY ON THE NOSE. MY RIGHT STOPS WHERE HIS NOSE BEGINS. I HAVE NO RIGHT TO DRINK IF MY DRINKING INJURES OTHERS.

WELL I HAVE TO SAY THAT IF ZECHARIAH CHAFEE WAS IN THIS ROOM TODAY, WHAT HE WOULD SAY TO VOICES FOR VACCINES AND ALL THE MEDICAL PROPONENTS OF FORCED VACCINATION - YOUR RIGHT TO SWING YOUR SHOT ENDS AT MY ARM, AND MY CHILD'S ARM - AND EVERYONE'S ARM IN THIS ROOM. BECAUSE OUR RIGHTS ARE GUARANTEED UNDER THE CONSTITUTION OF THIS UNITED STATES. WE WILL NOT BE MARGINALIZED CITIZENS.

BY THE WAY, IN 1957, SENATOR JOSEPH MCCARTHY CALLED ZECHARIAH CHAFEE A PERSON MOST DANGEROUS TO AMERICA. COINCIDENTALLY, DR. PAUL OFFIT OF VOICES FOR VACCINES CALLS VACCINE REFUSERS MOST DANGEROUS TO AMERICA. HIS BESTSELLING BOOK IS “DEADLY CHOICES: HOW THE ANTI-VACCINE MOVEMENT THREATENS US ALL". HOW'S THAT FOR INFLAMMATORY RHETORIC. "

PS, we won this fight over HB1288. ONWARD!


"And you might say in response to the vaccine lobbyists, 'Your liberty to brandish a needle ends at my skin.'

Carol

I think we should all start driving on the sidewalk. It's not like there's even anyone there. We should have been doing this all along. Are sidewalks in the constitution? No!

Bayareamom

"Far too many deviations from science going on here. Too much dogma. Not what I expected from the usual suspects at AofA. The irony to me is that (many) "opinions" of what has been used to challenge information I presented originally, mirrors much if not all of the criticism which I ( and many of you) have leveled at our Federal government, the Courts and of course, Big Pharma. They started with a conclusion and then used whatever they decided was the data ( or sometimes not even that) to support their conclusion. With a healthy dose of cognitive dissonance to boot.
The real "damage" here, has already been done. Whether it was economic or death. The Trump administration was too late and too busy with politics to recognize the health and well being of the American people was at stake. Just tally the deaths and the trillions of dollars of losses. I don't have a "party", but I sure do have a country.
As the parent of a vaccine injured son, I can tell you that I have typically spent almost all of my time protecting him. I can tell you this. Far too much of what I am reading here protects none of us.
Good night and good luck. I will never be back. Far too much real work to be done."


Well, Mark, you're certainly entitled to your opinion.

But I'll tell you something: Unless you've been in my shoes, or anyone else's shoes for that matter, what you've had to say IS JUST YOUR OPINION (which we are all entitled to have).

Best of luck to you as well.

Jonathan Rose

Thank you, Kathy Sincere. And you might say in response to the vaccine lobbyists, “Your liberty to brandish a needle ends at my skin.”

Laura Hayes

The new America, unless more rise up, resist, refuse, and rebel, as this brave mother in ID did:

https://www.rt.com/usa/486589-mother-arrested-idaho-playground-protests/

I hope AoA readers will circulate this link, along with the letter by the WA state County Sheriff that bayareamom posted below, in hopes that more Americans will wake up to the escalating tyranny and the dire and urgent need to reclaim, protect, and preserve our Constitutional rights, before they are no more.

Mark Wax

To all:

Far too many deviations from science going on here. Too much dogma. Not what I expected from the usual suspects at AofA. The irony to me is that (many) "opinions" of what has been used to challenge information I presented originally, mirrors much if not all of the criticism which I ( and many of you) have leveled at our Federal government, the Courts and of course, Big Pharma. They started with a conclusion and then used whatever they decided was the data ( or sometimes not even that) to support their conclusion. With a healthy dose of cognitive dissonance to boot.
The real "damage" here, has already been done. Whether it was economic or death. The Trump administration was too late and too busy with politics to recognize the health and well being of the American people was at stake. Just tally the deaths and the trillions of dollars of losses. I don't have a "party", but I sure do have a country.
As the parent of a vaccine injured son, I can tell you that I have typically spent almost all of my time protecting him. I can tell you this. Far too much of what I am reading here protects none of us.
Good night and good luck. I will never be back. Far too much real work to be done.

Carol

Apparently people can be walking around unaware that their blood oxygen saturation levels are extremely low. They're not going to the ER because they're unaware that they're hypoxic. (A few weeks ago an ER doc on tv said that he had had a patient with an SPO2 of 30. I'm not sure what it was when he decided he needed to go to the ER.) This throws a different light on being asymptomatic, huh?

I have asthma (controlled) and a much smaller lung capacity than normal people. When my new doc put a pulse oximeter on my finger, I was surprised to see that my SPO2 was 96. I bought one of those gadgets and started using it from time to time. (My SPO2 has only been as low as 94 once and the gadget beeped at me then.) I'm going to start using my gadget every day.

I doubt if you can buy a pulse oximeter right now. Long ago, before albuterol, I used to check my fingernails for blueness. I wanted them to be nice and pink. I'm not a doctor and this is not medical advice. Your mileage may vary.

Jenny Allan

In Scotland there have been more than 1000 recent extra cancer and dementia deaths. In the lockdowned UK people are not reporting symptoms of cancer or other illnesses. They are afraid of ending up in hospitals which have become Covid-19 'killing fields' for patients and staff alike. Our incompetent health quangos, including the much criticised Public Health England, initially refused to source protective masks, gowns and other essential protective items for NHS staff, from UK suppliers, who instead exported tons of such items to other countries including China. Meanwhile supplies from abroad became scarce or were found to be faulty on arrival. Now scared NHS doctors, nurses and auxilliary staff have been told to wash and reuse gowns and other items. Persons in care homes have been described as 'lambs to the slaughter'. Up to a third of all Covid-19 deaths are happening there, in particular those state run institutions, which are obliged to accept cases transferred from hospitals.

Apparently , the UK missed a chance to cooperate with European countries to collectively source PPE and other equipment including life saving ventilators . Government health politicians and senior civil servants are blaming each other for this monumental cock-up.

Meanwhile the rest of us are told we don't need masks when venturing out for food and essentials. What the Government spokespersons really mean is there are not enough to go round. We are encouraged to make our own out of old T shirts etc. We have masks bought from a DIY store and used when insulating our loft. They wash up in disinfectant quite well.

vaxxus

Cia,

Do you know that 15% isn't the true hospitalization rate because so many have mild or asymptomatic illness and were never tested?

I had already explained that any calculation using confirmed cases vs deaths or hospitalization is deeply flawed.

You can't base any assumption on these flawed ways of calculating the complications or outcomes of COVID-19.

The problem with your assumption is that you take only the tip of the iceberg, the outcomes of the most serious cases and then assume the entire population(100%) would have these outcomes.

Obviously you are getting extremely scary numbers if you do it that way.

All studies that looked into the infection rate in the population so far found the rate to be much higher in the general population than what the number of confirmed cases would suggest.

This recent study in Denmark for example found the number of infected cases to be 20 times higher than official confirmed cases.

https://www.rt.com/news/486017-denmark-covid19-mortality-study/

Denmark has an official hospitalization rate of 23%, that would make the true hospitalization rate around 1%.

Any estimate relying on confirmed cases would have to be adjusted accordingly. So there is no way that you are ever going to see 10% death rate with covid-19 even when you are extremely pessimistic.

Cia

The US has had 850,000 cases, 48,000 deaths, 2,500 of them yesterday, and that’s with lockdowns for the past month. What do readers here think would happen if everyone rebelled and said We won’t take it anymore, to hell with protecting my neighbor if I am inconvenienced! It is my God-given constitutional right to enjoy the American way of life come what may, and I don’t care WHO suffers as long as I don’t have to!

The disease is not slackening off yet. If given half a chance, it will rebound. 2,500 deaths today? Once everyone is back to work laughing, hugging, talking, sneezing, coughing, wonderful, the Witch is dead!, most not wearing masks (as my 92 year old neighbor said, They’re just not HER), what a sense of liberation and comfort. For a few weeks, and then Covid, the Honey Badger virus, comes roaring back. 2,500 dead yesterday? How about 3,000 tomorrow, 6,000 three days after that, 15,000 a week after that? And every one of those people and their families and friends will say What did we do? If only we could go back in time and brush up on Pandemics for I——-. What profiteth it a man and he win the whole world and he lose his —?

Laura Hayes

Bayareamom,

Thank you for posting the refreshing-to-read, wonderfully-written letter by Sheriff Adam Fortney of WA...made my day! I will be sharing it far and wide, in hopes that it will encourage other sheriffs to take a similar stand, and encourage others from all walks of life to refuse to give up their right to earn a living, provide for their family, attend church, gather with friends and family, support local businesses, conduct their own business and affairs as needed, etc.

He hit the nail on the head when he wrote this:

"This is the great thing about freedom. If you are worried about getting sick you have the freedom to choose to stay home. If you need to make a living for your family and are comfortable doing so, you should have the freedom to do so."

I also loved his closing:

"This is not a time to blindly follow, this is a time to lead the way."

As Cynthia Cournoyer wrote in her excellent book, "What About Immunizations? Exposing the Vaccine Philosophy", both individual and public health are best accomplished and best served when each individual, and each family, has the freedom to make the best health-related decisions for themselves, minus government/insurance industry/medical establishment interference (I am paraphrasing...Cynthia, if you are reading this, please consider posting the exact sentence/paragraph from your book!).

If people are fearful of Covid-19, they can choose to stay home, limit/eliminate contact with others, wear masks and gloves should they go out, etc. Their choice.

Likewise, if people are not fearful of Covid-19, they should be free to go to work, go to church, frequent businesses of their choosing, socialize, not wear masks and gloves, etc. Their choice.

I hope and pray that others in law enforcement will choose to not enforce stay at home, close of businesses, schools, and churches, social distancing, and mask wearing orders/mandates.

A much-needed and excellent letter by this WA sheriff!

Kathy Sincere


@Mark Wax -

“A response to both Laura and Bob. Both of whom I respect. ….Your liberty to swing your fist ends at my nose.” You must be fond of that phrase to put it in your response but I can tell you it sounds alarms in my head every time I hear or read it.

“Your liberty to swing your fist ends at my nose” was a pet phrase of Dorit Rubinstein Reiss in the 2016 and 2017 state legislative sessions when bad vaccine bills were being introduced. She gave it to her lobbyist minions across the country to weave a speech against the anti-vaxxers – they actually quoted it to make the analogy that your right to refuse vaccines ends with my right to be “safe”. The lobbyist for Pfizer, former Voices for Vaccines board member Elizabeth Sundari Kraft, used it many times at the Colorado Capitol to make her case for mandatory vaccination.

That phrase “Your right….”, as I’m sure you know, was an old legal phrase refined and published in a Harvard Law Review article in 1919 by Harvard law professor Zechariah Chaffee who was an outspoken champion of civil rights (like the civil rights Jonathan Rose is defending). Chaffee used that phrase in a legal defense he wrote for war protestors, titled Freedom of Speech in Wartime. It was often quoted by his friend Oliver Wendell Holmes as a Supreme Court justice. Freedom of Speech, Freedom to Protest during this War waged against the people of America.

By the way, in 1957, Senator Joseph McCarthy called Zechariah Chafee “a person most dangerous to America”.

Mr. Wax, you state “The Covid virus can be defeated with intelligent scientific rules. Without the chaos that ( Laura) the post above implies. Once again, it has nothing to do with freedom. “ Oh yes it does, oh yes it does, OH YES IT DOES. You state “I see no voluntary repression going on.” The operative word -conveniently omitted - should be YET……….
“I would redirect the energy of the right wing protesters who are using this crisis to posture about ‘liberty’ when there may be no ‘life’ to preserve nor happiness to pursue.”

This is ALL about liberty. The Covid plandemic has been designed for this control. I think Chafee would agree heartedly with Jonathan Rose, his perspective and right to commentary.

Kathy Sincere
72 and going strong. I won’t wear a mask EVER and I’m proud to protest at the CO Capitol

Cia

Vaxxus,

As I have said, it is about 10% mortality when numbers of the sick overwhelm hospitals. It is about 15% of the sick who need hospitalization, which means that they can’t breathe without specialized hospital care. About 5% need an ICU. In several places so far, even cities with advanced medical systems have been overwhelmed by the numbers and unable to give any care to most of the desperately ill, who die. That was the whole idea behind flattening the curve, to keep the numbers of the desperately ill from overwhelming hospitals. But it has already happened in many places: Wuhan, Italy, Spain, the UK, New York, New Jersey, New Orleans. In most places the hospitals haven’t been overwhelmed (yet), and Covid mortality may be as low as 2%, though it may turn out to be much more than that when a final count is made. Sweden has already decided that it won’t even try to treat the elderly, preferring to concentrate their efforts on the young and healthy. Contemptible.

If you look at Sweden’s numbers, because of their refusal to even try to fight, deaths are much higher than in neighboring locked-down countries. I predict that it’s citizens will rebel and Sweden will be shamed for its selfish, callous choices.

Bayareamom

For those who may be interested:

Snohomish County Sheriff Adam Fortney

Snohomish County Residents and Business Owners,

"I just watched the Governor’s speech to Washingtonian’s regarding our approach to getting Washington back in business and I am left to wonder if he even has a plan? To be quite honest I wasn’t even sure what he was trying to say half of the time. He has no plan. He has no details. This simply is not good enough in times when we have taken such drastic measures as the suspension of constitutional rights. I wrote most of this about two weeks ago but I decided to wait out of respect for the Governor and my own misguided hope that each day he did a press conference he would say something with some specificity on getting Washington back to work. After what I witnessed tonight I can no longer stay silent as I’m not even sure he knows what he is doing or knows what struggles Washingtonian’s face right now.

I want to start by saying this virus is very real and sadly, it has taken 97 lives in Snohomish County. This is a very serious issue and the appropriate precautions need to be taken to protect our most vulnerable populations. However, our communities have already shown and continue to show they understand the severity of the situation and are doing all they can already to keep themselves, their families and neighbors safe and healthy.

I am worried about the economy and I am worried about Washingtonian’s that need to make a living for their family. As more data floods in week by week and day by day about this pandemic I think it is clear that the “models” have not been entirely accurate. While that is okay, we cannot continue down the same path we have been on if the government reaction does not fit the data or even worse, the same government reaction makes our situation worse.

As elected leaders I think we should be questioning the Governor when it makes sense to do so. Are pot shops really essential or did he allow them to stay in business because of the government taxes received from them? That seems like a reasonable question. If pot shops are essential, then why aren’t gun shops essential? Our Governor has told us that private building/construction must stop as it is not essential, but government construction is okay to continue. So let me get this right, according to the Governor if you are employed or contracted by the government to build government things you can still make a living for your family in spite of any health risk. If you are a construction worker in the private sector you cannot make a living and support your family because the health risk is too high. This contradiction is not okay and in my opinion is bordering on unethical.

As I arrive to work at the courthouse, I see landscapers show up each day to install new landscape and maintain our flowerbeds. How has Governor Inslee deemed this essential work? However, a father who owns a construction company and works alone while outdoors is not allowed to run his business to make a living to provide for his wife and children? How has Governor Inslee deemed thousands of Boeing employees who work inside a factory building airplanes essential? But building residential homes is not essential? If a factory with 20,000+ employees each day can implement safe practices to conduct normal business operations, I am entirely confident that our small business owners and independent contractors are more than capable of doing the same.

If this Coronavirus is so lethal and we have shut down our roaring economy to save lives, then it should be all or nothing. The government should not be picking winners or losers when it comes to being able to make an income for your family. If the virus is so lethal it shouldn’t matter whether you are building a school for the government, building a new housing development, restaurant owner, or you happen to be an independent contractor. To the contrary, if the virus is proving to not be as lethal as we thought, maybe it’s time for a balanced and reasonable approach to safely get our economy moving again and allowing small businesses to once again provide an income for their families and save their businesses. This is what I hoped for from the Governor tonight but he is not prepared or ready to make these decisions. If we are going to allow government contractors and pot shops to continue to make a living for their families, then it is time to open up this freedom for other small business owners who are comfortable operating in the current climate. This is the great thing about freedom. If you are worried about getting sick you have the freedom to choose to stay home. If you need to make a living for your family and are comfortable doing so, you should have the freedom to do so.

As I have previously stated, I have not carried out any enforcement for the current a stay-at-home order. As this order has continued on for well over a month now and a majority of our residents cannot return to work to provide for their families, I have received a lot of outreach from concerned members of our community asking if Governor Inslee’s order is a violation of our constitutional rights.

As your Snohomish County Sheriff, yes I believe that preventing business owners to operate their businesses and provide for their families intrudes on our right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. I am greatly concerned for our small business owners and single-income families who have lost their primary source of income needed for survival.

As your elected Sheriff I will always put your constitutional rights above politics or popular opinion. We have the right to peaceably assemble. We have the right to keep and bear arms. We have the right to attend church service of any denomination. The impacts of COVID 19 no longer warrant the suspension of our constitutional rights.

Along with other elected Sheriffs around our state, the Snohomish County Sheriff’s Office will not be enforcing an order preventing religious freedoms or constitutional rights. I strongly encourage each of you to reach out and contact your councilmembers, local leaders and state representatives to demand we allow businesses to begin reopening and allow our residents, all of them, to return to work if they choose to do so.

The great thing about Snohomish County government is we have all worked very well together during this crisis. I’m not saying we agree all of the time, I’m saying we have the talent and ability to get this done for Snohomish County! This is not a time to blindly follow, this is a time to lead the way."

Sheriff Adam Fortney

Cia

Benedetta,

I put up a comment this morning about the video with the bodies in the sea in Ecuador with indications on how to get it. It hasn’t been posted yet. It was s as t Nstural News on April 19.

I just saw several videos taken with cell phones in Guayaquil. Google Crisis en Guayaquil: Cuerpos en Calles y Casas. I saw a woman crying and shouting in the street in front of her house, pleading for someone to help her. You could see a body lying inside the fence. Another one showed people setting mattresses with dead bodies of family members on fire in the street in front of their houses. Another of a young man in his thirties saying that his brother had just died of Covid. Society has broken down, no one is attempting to keep official figures. Just tens of thousands asphyxiating from Covid and no one can help them. Except at least acknowledge the horror of their crisis and pray for them. Not deny it.

Laura Hayes

An interesting read about Sweden and its approach for those interested:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-swedish-experiment-looks-like-it-s-paying-off

And in case you haven't yet read the article by Edda West, whose link I posted earlier, let me take this opportunity to cut and paste its excellent ending:

"Let Our People Go!

If this lockdown is an exercise in testing the public’s willingness to obey government dictates based on grossly flawed epidemiological modeling, lack of data, fear and unconstitutional decrees by our minority government, then it is a resounding success. It shows us that no matter how flimsy the evidence, how glaring the lack of definitive medical data and statistics, how devastating the impact on families and society, when government flexes its ‘emergency powers’, we are all too willing to go along with it.

Given the drastic downgrading of the pandemic model that triggered lockdown policies, a re-evaluation of these measures is now overdue. The social distancing, self-isolation, almost complete shut down of society and the economy are based on disease modelling speculations that are completely divorced from previous accumulated global pandemic experience. As aptly stated by this U.K journalist, these are,“measures that are astonishing by the standards of wartime, never mind peacetime.”

Another media analyst put it bluntly,

“This isn’t complicated. The models don’t work. The hospitals are empty. WHY ARE WE STILL TALKING ABOUT INDEFINITE LOCKDOWNS?”

Our hospitals are NOT overwhelmed by a tsunami of desperately ill patients. Many hospitals are eerily empty with nurses reporting their shifts have been cancelled, elective surgeries are all cancelled, and most normal hospital business has ground to a halt.

Spring is here and everyone wants to be outdoors. It is cruel and inhumane to force lockdown on an entire population in the spring and summer when everyone needs to spend time outdoors in the fresh air and sunshine, when gardens need to be planted and farmers plant their seeds. Children especially after a long winter, need to be outdoors playing with their friends in the sunshine to replenish and boost their health. Everybody needs to get fresh air and time outdoors – so essential for everyone’s health and wellbeing, not to mention an important remedy to dispel viruses. It’s time to retire the ‘covid’ cops harassing and intimidating people out for a stroll in the park, ticketing them for not adhering to strict new social distancing rules.

Rage is rising among the people that lockdown has gone too far. It’s TIME TO END IT! It is time to LET OUR PEOPLE GO!"

Lastly, a quote someone shared with me last week:

“A quarantine is when you seclude sick people to protect the healthy. Secluding the healthy is something else ..." Serge Roy, YouTube commentor

susan welch

Laura, thank you for the really excellent Vaccine Choice Canada article. I have shared on Twitter.

vaxxus

Cia, your number of 10% of the world's population dying from covid-19 if hospitals are overwhelmed is fiction.

The hospitalization rate vs infected cases isn't even anywhere close to 10%. Even if hospitals were closed for covid-19 patients you couldn't see these numbers. It's just not possible.

Sweden didn't have a lockdown and had 2000 deaths and 1000 patients who needed intensive care.

That's that's 0.01% of the population who needed intensive care and 0.02% of the population who died so far.

I am not sure how you come up with these numbers but they aren't based on any thing factual as far as I can tell.

Cia

Everyone who is interested in Covid in Ecuador should watch the video at Brighteon posted at Natural News by Mike Adams on April 19. I watched it on Sunday and I think it’s authentic. Look up “Dead bodies washing up in Ecuador as Covid cases explode.”

I had a hard time just now getting to the video and playing it. I got to it by several different routes at different web sites, but the video wouldn’t play. That was using Google. When I switched to the search engine Yandex, which I love, I was immediately able to play the video again as I had on Sunday. Try with another search engine if Google won’t do it.

I think that everyone who would like to deny the horrible situation in Ecuador, including the dozens of dead bodies in the ocean, at the morgues, on the sidewalk, should first watch the video. When I first watched it I asked myself if it could have been staged, but when I watched it again, I realized that it could not have been.

David Weiner

I agree with the thrust of this article and the policy implications, but I think that Mark Wax may be correct, at least in part, on the subject of the relationship between recessions and mortality.

To elaborate, I will provide an excerpt from the path-breaking and fascinating book "Dirty Electricity", by epidemiologist and medical doctor Samuel Milham. It is from chapter 9, titled "The Diseases of Civilization".

For over 80 years, economists have noted a paradoxical improvement in health indices (declining mortality rates and increasing life expectancy) during economic recessions. Mortality rates increase and life expectancy decreases during economic expansions. ...

The expected decline of health indicators with economic recessions and improvement with economic growth in the 19th century Sweden was reversed in the 20th century, giving the counter intuitive pattern of higher mortality and lower life expectancy in economic expansions and improvement of these indices in recessions. The change or "tipping point" occurred at the end of the 19th century when electrification was introduced into Sweden.

All 5 of the reversals of annual industrial electric energy use in the US between 1912 and 1970 were accompanied by recessions with lowered GDP, increased unemployment, decreased mortality, and increased life expectancy. The mortality improvement between 1931 and 1932 by state in the US strongly favored urban (electrified) areas over rural areas. Rural unemployment positively correlated with residential electrification percentage by state in 1930. The health effects of economic change are mediated by electrical exposure. The improvement of health indices in Nazi occupied Europe in WW2 and in Cuba during their recent economic collapse were not due to caloric restriction, but to lowered EMF exposure (see Milham, 2012)

Jonathan Rose

Thank you, Laura, that article from Vaccine Choice Canada sums up all my apprehensions. Mr. Wax, please note that while you demand that AoA "take down" my essay, I would never ask them to censor any of your posts, however incoherent they may be. You accuse me of being a "libertarian" and a follower of Ayn Rand, which wildly misrepresents me. I am in fact a liberal, albeit the old-fashioned kind of liberal who still believes in free expression and civil liberties. You say that I have no right to express opinions based on history, but as a history teacher I encourage all my students to do precisely that -- and I would go so far as to extend this right even to Ivy League graduates.

Yes, antisemitism has been going on for centuries, but so have economic downturns, and the two are usually connected, because whatever wealth the Jews have accumulated presents a tempting target. Of course other groups can be targeted as well: Mexican-Americans might disagree with your conclusion that depressions are good for your health.

Frankly, lockdowns are having a devastating effect on small businesses and the working classes (auto workers and waitresses can't work from home), but they will enormously enrich Bill Gates and Jeff Besos. And to bring the discussion back to autism, if you take autistic kids out of their schools and lock them up at home, the inevitable result will be lost education and more domestic violence.

Cia

Laura,

The lockdowns have been necessary to prevent tens of thousands, even millions, of deaths. Where the virus has hit, where there are no lockdowns, the numbers of the severely ill have been so great that hospitals were overwhelmed and could do nothing for them, not even oxygen by any means or HCQ (which a new study says kills rather than helps: I think if that is true, it must be because of the advanced stage of the illness).

We need to keep the numbers way below the overwhelming stage. I won’t say we HAVE to, because just accepting millions of deaths is also an option, but not one which I would choose. To keep them down, we have to prevent transmission. We have to have many millions of cheap, easy to use saliva tests widely available. Sure, home tests would be great, but we’d have to also have them administered by the state to everyone, to keep it honest (and protect lives thereby). Immediately isolate, contact trace, etc, the state provides necessary treatment and financial support. New lockdown when the number of cases reached a certain number in a specific area. Masks and gloves mandated for everyone in public.

New York and New Jersey have been devastated by the L strain which came from Europe. The lockdowns there are the only reason that viral strain was not released in the rest of America. No one should be complacent about his safety if he lives elsewhere in the US, where the S strain has predominated up until now.

It’s impossible to know what comes next. Maybe the virus will just run its course and disappear the way SARS did. Maybe it will continue until it has infected everyone in the world, in that case it would probably have 10% mortality, as no one’s medical system could keep up with that. While some might say the world could easily handle ten percent dying, most would not want to see it happen like that. I would rather spend what it took to implement the plan I suggested.

Benedetta

The polar bear population is plummeting. Polar bears are found out in the ocean floating on icebergs that broke off. The earth is warming. Soon the polar caps will all melt away making a water world. See movie "Water World"

Down in Ecuadorians are floating dead in the oceans from the coronavirus 19 .

Except the polar bear populations -- are increasing. Yeah, there is actually people that counts them. Too bad for the people pushing that lie. So much of an increase in populations that there have been numerous reports of polar bears coming into rather big towns and cities up north and attacking people.

Not only that but it has come to light that there are such things as polizzers. Turns out that polar bears are just Grizzly bears and they breed back and forth. They are the same species because their offspring is not even hybrids, and their offspring breeds back and forth, and on and on. Turns out we don't know nothing of nature. But let us scare everyone with lies, let us twist the fact that polar bears on ice caps is not a common thing even though it is since they go way out to the edges of the ocean to hunt for seals, which often puts them way out to sea, and never let the populace that all lives down south that it is common that polar bears swims r miles and miles back to land.

Ecuador. Like the polar bears we have to take some ones word for it.
Cause we all live way north.
Are there really bodies floating out in the ocean?
Why are their bodies?
Are there really bodies?
Was this practice going on before the coron19, or was it going on before and the practice just continues?
Is it really the coronavirus, or is it really poverty.

I know about poverty.
I know what it is like to not have a penny to buy a school lunch. Not that my parents did not make a good living, but because they never had money to buy lunch and if it was good enough for them it was good enough for me. Poverty transcends multiple generations. And those that lived in poverty or generations after poverty never forget it.

Mark Wax

reply to Cia and Gary. I am certain that ( even though I opened a hornet's nest), Americans are simply not paying attention. They simply won't acknowledge that life is not a zero sum game. Virus or not.
Think Rome. Late Rome. Godspeed to all of my friends.

Bob Moffit

@ Mark Wax .. you write:

"The Covid virus can be defeated with intelligent scientific rules. Without the chaos that ( Laura) the post above implies. Once again, it has nothing to do with freedom.
Bob knows that I have served and sworn to protect an defend the Constitution. The document is not a suicide pact. Hence, I see no voluntary repression going on. If anything, the policy response has been misguided. This is the cause of the right wing response by the delusional Trump supporters. Many will leave that camp in any event. Many have already done so."

With all due respect .. could you elaborate on those "intelligent scientific rules"? As someone self-admittedly uneducated in "scientific rules" would love to hear them expressed by someone who fully understands them. Just basic "common sense" scientific rules if possible.

Please consider … my comment was "voluntary acceptance" .. not "voluntary repression" .. the difference being a willingness to surrender to "random searches" of person and belongings in order to board a plane or enter a stadium .. and today's "involuntary repression" call by government officials to have neighbors call authorities to report anyone who violates government "social distancing" guidelines.

I don't remember ANY PUBLIC PROTESTS regarding the excesses we have voluntarily suffered due to the PATRIOT ACT expansion of government agencies powers to monitor, collect and store persona data, censor opinions, the true extent of such state surveillance will likely never be known.

In any event .. I suspect you can better present your argument absent the "political" attack on President Trump and his supporters .. after all …we are tired of being called a "basket of deplorables" .. "bitter enders clinging to their guns and religion" .. and as you define us .. "delusional right wing supporters". I get it .. we disagree on policies and responses .. but that disagreement can be expressed absent the name-calling, no?

Laura Hayes

Edda West, former head of Vaccine Choice Canada, longtime activist, and excellent writer, hits the nail on the head again with her latest article. Please read and share!

https://vaccinechoicecanada.com/in-the-news/why-has-canada-been-forced-into-lockdown/

Morag

Super duper excellent article .
I wondered where the voice of nursing was for this respiritory situation/new family member of the coronovirus infection apparent.
Well I got my answer yesterday.
CNO Chief Nursing Officer Scotland . Was Telling people to get up to date with vaccine schedule , either at the surgery, or nurses could come to the house for this.


How does measles spread in a shut in, and lock down situation - do not know? not certain ?


Take a break from it. as and when required, we do!

Ailsa Craig Part One, Part Two , Part Three .

Gary Ogden

I for one would welcome a lively, gentlemanly debate on the issues Mark Wax has raised, although I'm not certain this is the place for it. One only has to look at Russia, Ukraine, and the Baltic states, particularly Lithuania, after the breakup of the Soviet Union, to see the effect of social disruption on health status and longevity. The same effect, on the other hand, did not occur in Cuba, at least not as profoundly, who lost the enormous subsidy the Soviets had provided. They soldiered on reasonably well. Part of this is perhaps cultural, but the point is that resilience is the key to survival, and strong social ties a powerful buffer to harm from deprivation. Americans are resilient, but social ties are being strained by the horrific "social distancing" being shoved down everyone's throat. I think the political divisions much talked about by the talking heads in the media, and on the internet, are mainly a media and internet phenomenon. Among those I interact with, of all political persuasions, I see good American values like neighborliness, a willingness to come to the aid of folks needing it, and generally a stiff upper lip. That said, the media has successfully whipped up fear and panic in a large segment of the population, and those folks are very easily manipulated. Colossal stupidity closing the schools and half the businesses, while doing little to protect the vulnerable elderly.

Bayareamom

Bio: Zach Bush, MD is one of the few triple board-certified physicians in the country - with expertise in Internal Medicine, Endocrinology and Metabolism, and Hospice/Palliative care.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JkhUn-A4G2M


Highly recommend this interview...

Cia

ol d,

ckdownsol not the way most of us think. Coronavirus has killed over 170,000 in the world in the last three months and is a present danger everywhere in the world. Even though most places have had lockdowns. Probably there would be a lot more deaths without lockdowns. The Spanish flu killed two percent of the world’s population, 25% or 30% of symptomatic cases, 40% of those who took aspirin. By your calculus, it was no big deal since 98% survived.

What would be enough to worry about? If your bar were very high, not vaccines, not opioids, not narcotrafficking, terrorism, drunk driving. I can’t think of anything which would kill a large percentage of the population prematurely if nothing were done about it. It looks as though CV CFR is 4% in the US now. In symptomatic cases. I think that’s enough to worry about and try to prevent.

It’s dozens of bodies in the sea in Ecuador, at a time of hundreds of bodies left in the street after they die of Covid. Many tragic accounts of their suffering. It’s not just one guy who fell off his boat.

If everyone were to unite, wear mask and gloves and take precautions, we could move on to the next step. But I read today that cases in the US were still going up.

Angus Files

You would think Fauci being a health talking head,from the school of quacks, might be asking himself why most diseases of late come from China. Of late from China we have had the Asian Flu in 1956 killed between one and four million people wor ldwide. SARS in 2002 infected 8,098 and killed 774 in seventeen counties. H7N9 emerged ten years later to strike at least 1,223 people and kill four out of every ten of them. Now, the more infectious COVID-19.I also read that various companys within America are taking China to court for comepensation about time too.

Good article Jonathan thank you.

Pharma For Prison

MMR RIP

Mark Wax

To Cia: It troubles me deeply to see that people can be manipulated when they are hurting. I understand why they are mistrustful of big government. It has been a long time since they have experienced the leadership ( some never have by virtue of their age) of the era in which I grew up. The 1950's and 1960's.
We have ample talent and dedication in this great nation to vanquish Covid-19, but that will take sacrifice. I would even ignore how it was botched by the current administration and the CDC.
I would redirect the energy of the right wing protesters who are using this crisis to posture about "liberty" when there may be no "life" to preserve nor happiness to pursue.
If only I could ask them to carefully consider the scientists and get them to complain about the continued pillaging of the Treasury with bail out for the corps and not the people.
I fear that hats and slogans and contempt are just easier tools. Ironically, this is exactly the climate that allows for the descent into hell that Jonathan Rose opined about. It is the response that was to blame in Nazi Germany, not the circumstances they found themselves.
If I run for office, instead of hats, I am going to hand out full length mirrors. I'd tell people they actually have the future in their hands, provided they can learn that "we are all in this together",.... and mean it.
Leadership wins wars. Trust me, my family has fought in them.

Cia

Tim,

New York and New Orleans did not have massive lockdowns and look what has happened there. Italy did not: then the killing fields. Spain did not, thinking what was happening in Italy could not happen there. But then it did. Total carnage. The U.K. , as John has said, blew it off until the third week of March, when it read the Imperial College report and realized that it was about to be pulverized, and locked down, but too late to prevent many thousands of deaths. You didn’t see the videos of pestilence, desperation, and chaos in Wuhan, Milan, Spain, New York, Ecuador, etc.? The videos showing mass graves and burials of hundreds of coffins all touching each other? The reports of dozens of dead bodies stacked up in every available space at that hospital in Detroit last week and a nursing home in New Jersey? Once that starts happening it’s difficult to keep it from spreading everywhere, and most people know that. Lockdowns will do it if they’re strictly observed, allowing a few weeks for the infections already seeded to play out. We don’t know what our options are yet, maybe it will disappear the way SARS did. Maybe it will run its course even when there are still a lot of sheltered people uninfected. Without lockdowns it would probably just burn through, killing a fairly large percentage of the population. Most people will not assent to that, at least until things become more desperate. It would be good to test everyone, isolate, and trace, very expensive, but that would be our best chance for stamping it out. But as for whether this is all a sadistic hoax, no, it is not.

Cia

Carol,

I just signed the petition goldenchameleon linked to permit home testing.

I think most people who have it don’t know it. Maybe they’ll eventually get symptoms, maybe they won’t, but in both cases they’ve probably infected other people. Everyone should wear masks in public. I have a feeling most people who had mild or no symptoms would go everywhere they usually do and tell themselves that it was a mild disease which wouldn’t harm anyone. There was an article at the Atlantic today about how wide a variance there was among cases. It said there was no other disease which produced mild or no symptoms in many, but three others off a cliff. I don’t know if it’s the only one, I think the Spanish flu was similar. In large part because of the role of the individual immune reaction (like vaccines). But Covid goes way beyond even that. Abnormal coagulation cascades anywhere in the body. In the lungs the clots crowd out the alveolar spaces necessary for oxygen exchange. The unique spike protein melds with CD147 (?) receptors on T cells and destroys what’s inside (like in AIDS). They attack hemoglobin and remove and release the iron, resulting in oxygen deprivation and iron toxicity. (HCQ both interrupts the autoimmune cytokine storm and prevents the attack on hemoglobin much as it does when used to treat malaria). I think much depends on individual factors which we cannot control or predict at this time.

Carol

I'm not clear what some people have been arguing here. If you knew you were infected with Covid-19, but were asymptomatic would you go to church, go shopping and make sure you handled all the cheese? I doubt that anyone here would do that. Maybe I'm wrong.

I had a nasal infection for a few weeks recently and a little fever for a day. I didn't think I had the virus, but I, of course, stayed home and isolated myself as best I could from the rest of my family. Oddly enough, I didn't feel less free, but I have Netflix and no problem paying the mortgage.

If I infected someone with an illness that was serious to that person and I knew I had done it, I would feel like shit. Of course, if I didn't know then ignorance would be bliss.

Tim Lundeen

@cia Not one of the places without lockdowns is having a catastrophe, they seem to be doing just fine without economic devastation. What is the evidence for your claims that we would have mass deaths without lockdowns? I just don't see it. Please provide evidence, or stop claiming this.

You talk about dead bodies washing up on the beach, but how do you even know they got there because of COVID? I saw a news article early on "Man falls dead in subway from COVID". Geez... Does a slightly higher short-term death-rate from infectious disease, which we see every year from colds/flus, justify economic devastation? Economic devastation will also kill people, through depression, exposure, and malnutrition.

People die every day, the annual death rate in the US is about 8,000 per million or about 7,000 PER DAY. The deaths from COVID so far are a small fraction of this, and that's even taking the statistics at face value (even though they are likely to be greatly inflated).

goldenchameleon

There is a petition up on whitehouse.gov that demands the FDA allow for in-home COVID-19 infection and antibody testing so that individual citizens can know their status as quickly as possible. Currently you can only get this test through a health care provider who is obligated to report the results to the CDC and you can only be made aware of the results if you have current symptoms of the infection. Private, in-home testing, per Dr. James Lyons-Weiler, would be a large step in the right direction toward avoiding potential "immunity certificates" or adult mandates. Here is the link to sign:

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/authorize-private-home-testing-covid-19-infections-and-antibodies

Cia

I appreciated Mark Wax’ letter and would like to see a full-page article by him. I don’t like to see what seems to be a dismissal of the hundreds of thousands who have died of this so far. It’s true that in the short term you have to choose between protecting the vulnerable from a horrific disease and protecting the economy and civil liberties, which is antithetical to preventing the spread of the disease. Boris Johnson since he recovered from nearly dying of Covid, is said to have become much more fearful of it, and unwilling to end the lockdown so soon that it results in a resurgence. Is that the case here? Is it that many people haven’t imagined what it would be like if they or a family member died of this?

Mark Wax

A response to both Laura and Bob. Both of whom I respect. Laura and I have even met ( spoke together on a radio show may years ago).
Your liberty to swing your fist ends at my nose. Big government in the current crisis need not be synonymous with bad government. In fact, the Trump administration has proven so incompetent, that relying on hunches and prescribing "freedom", just reveals how bad outcomes are baked in the cake.
The Covid virus can be defeated with intelligent scientific rules. Without the chaos that ( Laura) the post above implies. Once again, it has nothing to do with freedom.
Bob knows that I have served and sworn to protect an defend the Constitution. The document is not a suicide pact. Hence, I see no voluntary repression going on. If anything, the policy response has been misguided. This is the cause of the right wing response by the delusional Trump supporters. Many will leave that camp in any event. Many have already done so.
Turning to the example in the Facebok post that references "vaccines," I'd like to clarify my position.
Much like my friend RFK, Jr. I am not "anti-vaccine." I am FOR safe vaccines. I always argued that do to bad government and a corrupt bureaucracy, we have a system where the misguided reward goes to Big Pharma, as they buy off parasitic politicians.
However, the antidote to bad government is NOT, no government. It is good government.
I had the privilege of meeting RFK, Jr's father. Robert F. Kennedy. In fact, my nomination application for appointment to USNA ( in 1968) was on his desk when he was brutally murdered.
That did not destroy my idealism. Nor would it destroy the quest of any of us who want to build a better world.
The typical parents that subscribe to this content site are among the most heroic people in the world. Especially the parents of children whose lives have been destroyed and compensatory damages denied. None of this changes when you allow your anger to move you to immoral behavior.
Even if, God forbid, every one of us writing here today, dies from the virus, or the "starvation, or suicide" stated above, the world will still go on. Let''s make it a better place than we found it.

Should this dialog continue, I would gladly outline a plan of action that contains the virus and how e can mitigate the economic damage associated with same. Hint: we don;t bail out the "speculators"

Gary Ogden

Jonathon Rose: Thank you very much for this. Sobering.

Cia

It is speculation as to whether the economic and political changes would be catastrophic in the long term, but certain that the death rate would be extremely high if appropriate measures were not taken to slow it down.

The Visegrad countries like Hungary are among the few to have slowed it down and have had few deaths. It’s a good thing to suspend certain liberties in order to prevent huge numbers of deaths from an out-of-control epidemic.

Mark Wax

Mr. Rose is guilty of what every "opinion" brings. A failure to state all the facts. As someone who is an avid reader of AofA and parent of vaccine injured son, I have frequently pointed that out when government and Big Pharma has conveniently done the same thing. So, Mr. Rose needs to be held to the same standard.

Published research conducted descriptive analyses of trends and examined associations between annual changes in health indicators and annual changes in economic activity using correlations and regression models. Population health did not decline and indeed generally improved during the 4 years of the Great Depression, 1930–1933, with mortality decreasing for almost all ages, and life expectancy increasing by several years in males, females, whites, and nonwhites. For most age groups, mortality tended to peak during years of strong economic expansion (such as 1923, 1926, 1929, and 1936–1937). In contrast, the recessions of 1921, 1930–1933, and 1938 coincided with declines in mortality and gains in life expectancy. The only exception was suicide mortality which increased during the Great Depression, but accounted for less than 2% of deaths. Correlation and regression analyses confirmed a significant negative effect of economic expansions on health gains. The evolution of population health during the years 1920–1940 confirms the counterintuitive hypothesis that, as in other historical periods and market economies, population health tends to evolve better during recessions than in expansions.

Mr. Rose cites Mr. Brenner and uses a period of 1940-1973. Ironically, in its totality that is actually the greatest period of economic expansion in the history of mankind. Of course, picking your own start and end dates can dramatically skew the results towards whatever it is you are trying to prove.
'Torture the data long enough and it will confess to anything."

Mr. Rose goes on to connect the virus to recent and historical political upheaval as if there was any one precipitating event that created the climate for the horrid outcomes of Nazi Germany. This is correlation not causation. The Holocaust was not a controlled study. Trust me, I am a Jew. Anti-Semitism had been around for thousands of years ( still exists) and many hundreds of thousands of Jews were murdered across Europe for centuries. Ever hear of the "Inquisition"? Or pogroms. I could cite the data more specifically, but I have already written a missive.

In New Zealand, hardly a right wing country, the virus was best managed with the most stringent and intelligent measures of containment. They did this in 10 weeks. They started earlier than we did. You can look it up. They have excellent data. We don't.

If I were a betting man, I'd say that Mr. Rose is just using the health crisis to promote his libertarian views. The next thing you know he'll be discussing "herd immunity" or how Ayn Rand would handle the Covid-19. Mr. Rose has no business in passing off his "opinion" by using his view of history. That is not science.

If Mr. Rose wants to use his available ink to attack me, I will tell him to have at it. I have been in harm's way, so I'd remind him with his Ivy League education; 'Your PhD doesn't make me stupid."

I think AofA should take down his essay unless it publishes mine ( i need an editor) as well. On the main page.

Bob Moffit

From the article;

"Even in the United States, we have accepted repressive measures which in many ways go farther than any totalitarian regime in history: the closure of schools, universities, theaters, libraries, restaurants, workplaces, churches, parks, all public meetings, and all “nonessential” businesses. In my state of New Jersey, public parks are closed but liquor stores have been deemed “essential”, though we know that alcohol abuse reduces resistance to disease and is a major cause of domestic violence – and indeed, from around the world, reports of domestic violence are surging under the pressure of lockdowns."

The most frightening word in opening sentence above is capitalized: "Even in the United States, we have ACCEPTED repressive measures …." I would have added VOLUNTARILY ACCEPTED .. which is exactly what has happened to our country … as we did following 9/11 and passing of the PATRIOT ACT .. where still today our "new normal" is to voluntarily ACCEPT intrusive "pat down searches" and "rummaging through our personal possessions" by "security agents" who decide what is or is not considered "non-threatening" as we try to board an airplane or enter a public school or stadium.
Unfortunately the PATRIOT ACT provided many government agencies LICENSE to MONITOR our conversations, our contacts, our opinions .. on and on .. all in the name of providing us a feeling of SECURITY AGAINST A TERRORIST ACT.

Indeed .. there WILL BE A "NEW NORMAL" when the "suspension" of our Constitutional Rights finally ends .. and that NEW NORMAL will guarantee our lives will have been changed forever … the least of the changes being outlawing 'SHAKING HANDS' which has already been proposed by our new Czar of accepted public actions and events.

As the wise man once warned … 'Those who would voluntarily surrender their LIBERTY in order to gain their personal SECURITY … will eventually have NEITHER.

Laura Hayes

Someone shared this posting on Facebook with me. It is excellent.

“If you want to stay home, stay home.
If you want to wear a mask, wear a mask.
If you want to avoid large crowds, avoid large crowds.
I am not required to descend into poverty for you.
I am not required to abstain from human contact for you.
I am not required to shop alone, without my kids, for you.
I refuse to participate in "quarantine life" until there's an unsafe, untested vaccine released in eighteen months. I refuse to receive said vaccine to make others feel more safe. I won't set myself--or my children--on fire to keep you warm. If you're convinced the vaccine is safe and effective, you can get it yourself.
Some of you are allowing fear and policies devoid of scientifically accurate data to destroy America and ruin your life. I can't control your self-destructive behaviors, but we all have a say in America.
We need to tell legislators that we demand options. We have a constitutional right to take risks. Life is full of bacteria and viruses--many of which spread before symptoms manifest and after they subside. We have a right to receive OR refuse vaccines.
The data was inaccurate at best; purposely overblown to justify government overreach at worst. Stop allowing the government to destroy:
The Food Supply
Small Businesses
Medical Autonomy
Access to Healthcare
Religious Gatherings
Privacy Rights
Fellowship
When the "new normal" is filled with starvation, depression, suicide, imprisonment, governmental spying, and pure DESPERATION, the virus is going to look preferable to the world you helped facilitate.

~Author unknown”

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