Children's Health Defense: Health Authorities Remain Silent on Efficient Covid-19 Treatment
Autism: The Original CDC & WHO Failure with No End in Sight

Another View on Influenza vs. COVID-19 Death Rates

World fluBy James Lyons-Weiler, PhD – 3/22/2020

IN MY LAST ARTICLE, I compared the number of symptomatic cases of influenza in the first 49 days of the 2019/2020 season to the number of symptomatic and estimated cases of COVID-19. While the number of current cases of COVID-19 – those presenting clinically and diagnosed based on symptoms – may be similar, the increase in estimated number of mild cases – including subclinical asymptomatic cases vastly outstrips what people have been referring to as “the number of flu cases”.

Readers have correctly pointed out that I’m comparing apples and oranges – because the number of flu cases is also not fully known. Many people w/influenza ALSO do not go to the doctor, and thus would be “mild” or asymptomatic.

My response is “100% correct” and that proves my point. Individuals comparing “flu cases” to COVID-19 to flu don’t know the asymptomatic rate for influenza. It is very difficult to estimate a case fatality rate during an outbreak – and it may vary from country to country depending on, obviously, the medical facilities’ ability to save lives during the critical phase of a disease, which for COVID-19 involves, I believe, an autoimmune attack leading to unresolvable pneumonia (symptomatic) but massive tissue damage to the lungs (lung immunopathology).

So let’s get into that. There’s a lot at stake in understanding the rate of spread of COVID-19 compared to influenza – as well as the case fatality rate.

The WHO publishes data on influenza cases in the US

I can literally hear the vaccine risk aware person pulling their hair out. “There are NOT 22,000 deaths from influenza every year!” Extremely valid point, we’ll get back to that in a minute. It’s key.

Here death rate confirmed cases” is

#deaths in symptomatic cases / total symptomatic cases x 100

Here “death rate per est. cases” is

#deaths in estimated cases / total estimated cases x 100

WHO provided total estimated cases for influenza

IPAK provided total estimated cases for COVID using the correction factor

#symptomatic cases / (1-0.86)

Why 1-0.86?

Because China provided an estimate of the number of undetected cases.

The ratio of estimated CFR – COVID CFR / Influenza is 2.9

Apples to apples.

Yes, we can debate the accuracy of 0.86, whether it applies to the US.

In fact, we can debate every number in the table.

WHO’s numbers of influenza cases and deaths come from the CDC.

The fact that they actually represent “flu-syndrome” cases is failure of public health administration – a failure of EPIC… no, COSMIC proportions.

No one can estimate a solid death rate between COVID-19 and Influenza.

So now, when it really does matter, we are – all of us- left with impressions of data, not data; death rate estimates that flip-flop.

Head spinning?

Mine, too.

I’d suggest we focus on the rates – in symptomatic cases – of hospitalization and the rates of critical cases.

Read more at JLW's blog here: Another View on Influenza vs. COVID-19 Death Rates


Angus Files

Test kits fixed?nah,no way! WHO could have guessed it!

Coronavirus test crisis as kits shipped in from Europe found contaminated with COVID-19
BORIS JOHNSON'S attempts to role out a programme of mass coronavirus testing have suffered a major setback, after testing kits were found to be contaminated with COVID-19.

Pharma For Prison


Angus Files

Agree Michael hard to call.As I see it playing out Dr. Anthony Fauci I think is admitting he is wrong as maybe the Trump camp have done the maths on the deaths and called him out.Deaths ,now being calculated at less that 0.1% from Corona .At the same time still promoting his false death and doom claims, Still lining the coffers of Pharma and his masters as he runs. Time will tell. We’re being subjected to a `nice cop-bad cop` scenario in so much as Offit the other week talking the cheap talk that a Corona vaccine won’t work. Someone should ask Offit what is so different about his Rotateq vaccine. Maybe its sour grapes Offits Rotateq isn’t being pushed and peddled as a cure for Corona.


Pharma For Prison



Angus, apparently that "editorial" article was first published as an EPUB on February 28th. Don't know if this is a "what do you think and when did you think it."

Covid-19 - Navigating the Uncharted. - NCBI › pubmed
by AS Fauci - ‎2020 - ‎Cited by 13
N Engl J Med. 2020 Mar 26;382(13):1268-1269. doi: 10.1056/NEJMe2002387. Epub 2020 Feb 28. Covid-19 - Navigating the Uncharted. Fauci AS(1), Lane ...

susan welch

An excellent edition of UK column today. Lots of facts, common sense and the occasional laugh.

Angus Files

"If I could reach through my screen and physically shake people with this news, I would.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the US front man for managing the "pandemic," has just written an article that ought to be titled: I WAS WRONG AND THIS IS MY CONFESSION.

Fauci, New England Journal of Medicine, March 26, "Covid-19 -- Navigating the Uncharted":

"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968)..."

In case there is any doubt, those "pandemic influenza seasons" of 1957 and 1968 did NOT result in any lockdowns. People went outdoors. They mingled. They sat in stadiums. They went to their jobs.

SO TURN THE ECONOMY BACK ON NOW. End the insanity"...Jon Rapport

NEJME Article

Pharma For Prison


susan welch


Thank you so much for that blog. Really excellent.


Dr. Malcom Kendrick's blog today on the massive cost to shutting down society for COVID-19 is brilliant and builds on Dr. Lyons-Weiler's piece:



I am currently viewing (literally as I type this) Del Bigtree's The Highwire livestream from today. IT. IS. FANTASTIC.

My feelings about ALL of this, i.e., quarantine, isolation, etc., so forth, are rapidly changing as I try to read as much info. as I can and research, research, research. Am very, very grateful, though, for Del's very intensive livestream today.

And boy, his livestream from today is an absolute gamechanger for me.

I have been intimating in a couple of previous comments that I am leaning more and more towards Dr. Paul Offit's statement re allowing this virus to run through the populous, thereby achieving herd immunity.

But there's also the issue with the medication issue (can't spell it off hand and won't try to look it up or I'll lose this text as I type). The information that Del brings forth re this malaria drug (which has been in use for approx. 75 years) was really enlightening. Eye popping, actually.

PLEASE view Del's Highwire video of today - I beg everyone who reads/comments here to do so. I'm sending it to all of whom I've been in touch with as well.


I'm in the middle of viewing Del's The Highwire livestream of today - it's FANTASTIC.

I urge all here to read and share:

Fake scientists
Interesting but not surprising

Angus Files

As reported here a few days back by myself, John Rapport writes it up well..

UK downgrades COVID-19; no longer a high consequence infectious disease
(To read about Jon's mega-collection, The Matrix Revealed, click here.)
Where is the media roar all over the world---blasting out the news that the UK government no longer considers COVID an existential threat to all life on Earth?

No giant headlines indicating that the dominos are now starting to fall in another direction---away from sheer suicidal insanity?

Oh, that's right, it's the MEDIA.

The UK government, on its website, announced on March 23, under "Status of COVID-19":

"As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK."


"The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase."

"The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID."

"The need to have a national, coordinated response remains, but this is being met by the government's COVID-19 response."

"Cases of COVID-19 are no longer managed by HCID treatment centres only. All healthcare workers managing possible and confirmed cases should follow the updated national infection and prevention (IPC) guidance for COVID-19, which supersedes all previous IPC guidance for COVID-19. This guidance includes instructions about different personal protective equipment (PPE) ensembles that are appropriate for different clinical scenarios."

Of course, we can be the media, too. We are our own wire service, getting out news across the world.

Link: www[dot]gov[dot]uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

Pharma For Prison




That was a lot of good information in the long comment you posted on behalf of that man. The choice has become try to carry on as usual to keep the economy the same or save lives. It has surprised how many seem to be willing to throw Granny and thousands more under the bus. It has also surprised me that almost no one is wearing mask and gloves. We’ve been wearing them for three weeks when we go out. I saw one woman at the supermarket last Friday wearing one but she’s the only one I’ve seen. Even homemade masks are fairly effective, and thousands of women are making them to donate to hospitals, care homes, or others. See all the hashtags like #millionsofmasks. Every single person in the US should be wearing mask and gloves whenever they go out. At least a third of cases are being transmitted by people with no symptoms. Many never get symptoms, just subclinical immunity, so it’s not good enough to say you haven’t been close to anyone who was coughing or sneezing. Your friend was right, numbers are exploding exponentially and we ain’t seen nothing yet.

I hope hydroxychloroquine will be the answer India is now recommending that health care workers take it prophylactically

We should not relax current stay at home measures yet. We should test everyone in the country at government expense in one week, isolate all positives. Then test everyone again a month later in one week. Two-week quarantine for everyone entering the country as well as testing. Israel is doing this now. And then we’d be able to get this under control. There will always be an economy. Chris Martenson at Peak Prosperity said today that it just won’t be configured the same way, which would probably be a good thing. We’d still have the infrastructure, professionals, skilled technicians, and they’d just carry on.

I heard some today say that it would be better just to accept that many old sick people will die prematurely and many younger healthy ones as well. I think once they saw the numbers roll in and the faces and the stories of the dead they would change their minds, but then it would be too late to avert the catastrophe.

The best thing we can do is wear masks and gloves when we go out to buy groceries once a week and stay home. We went for a walk and probably saw fifteen people, none of them close. It’s the first day that feels like spring. Take vitamin C, D3, zinc, selenium. Have Sambucol and echinacea on hand. A nebulizer with colloidal silver just in case. Ask for hydroxychloroquine and Zithromax if you get cotonavirus. But absolutely do your part in not becoming infected yourself or infecting others. I agree that is a vitally important resource. I looked today and saw that the US has almost as many total cases as Italy, but a fraction of the deaths of Italy or Spain. The reason is that the sheer number of critical cases completely overwhelmed the resources of their excellent, advanced hospitals. Most of the dead would have recovered if they had gone to the hospital in respiratory collapse several months ago. But if you have a hundred people in desperate need of a respirator but only ten respirators, what happens? Ninety people die. A priest in Milan died the other day. His parishioners had bought a respirator for him and he was doing better. He heard that another patient was going to die without a respirator and he gave him his respirator and died. The world is the poorer for this loss. A 57 year old doctor died the other day in Italy because he had been treating patients without a mask, because there were no masks available. I don’t know why they didn’t make some.

There’s a lot we can still do to avert tragedies like this here, but we have to take this seriously and act now.


SNIP from the article I just posted:

..."Countries, international organizations, and global transportation companies should work together to maintain travel and trade during severe pandemics. Travel and trade are essential to the global economy as well as to national and even local economies, and they should be maintained even in the face of a pandemic. Improved decision-making, coordination, and communications between the public and private sectors, relating to risk, travel advisories, import/export restrictions, and border measures will be needed. The fear and uncertainty experienced during past outbreaks, even those limited to a national or regional level, have sometimes led to unjustified border measures, the closure of customer-facing businesses, import bans, and the cancellation of airline flights and international shipping. A particularly fast-moving and lethal pandemic could therefore result in political decisions to slow or stop movement of people and goods, potentially harming economies already vulnerable in the face of an outbreak. Ministries of Health and other government agencies should work together now with international airlines and global shipping companies to develop realistic response scenarios and start a contingency planning process with the goal of mitigating economic damage by maintaining key travel and trade routes during a large-scale pandemic. Supporting continued trade and travel in such an extreme circumstance may require the provision of enhanced disease control measures and personal protective equipment for transportation workers, government subsidies to support critical trade routes, and potentially liability protection in certain cases. International organizations including WHO, the International Air Transport Association, and the International Civil Aviation Organization should be partners in these preparedness and response efforts...."

I found the above snip particularly interestiing, given the current updates by Pres. Trump regarding opening up certain sectors of the country in order to help mitigate the economic damage already caused by the current pandemic.


Found this pandemic exercise (John Hopkins) article embedded within a few of the New Atlantic articles written re the current pandemic crisis.

Very interesting read:

Angus Files

Good stats Susan Welsh they did the same with smallpox but the sheeple still dont believe it all.Same trick diffrent bunny.

As David shows the vanishing trick of statistics has to be seen to be believed.We all know what they do to the autism figures as well.

Pharma For Prison


David m burd

@ Pft, Thank you for alerting me! I have just checked what you said.

You are correct: The American Lung Association document published in 2015, titled Trends in Pneumonia and Influenza Morbidity and Mortality, has been "scrubbed" in the last few days from Internet search engines.

We all KNOW this document was available as recently as last week because various AoA readers such as "golden chameleon" responded they had pulled it up and were amazed to see the CDC's outright LIES perpetuated about bogus annual flu mortality.

This CENSORING of honest disease statistics reveals how EVIL our National Health Regime has become.

These pneumonia and influenza stats are still documented by our annual U.S. National Vital Statistics Reports (that I have) and I hope can never be criminally censored as the American Lung Association document just was.

This "scrubbing" of U.S. influenza mortality data shows the depth of corruptness embedded in our Health Dictatorship as they demonstrate EVERY DAY their denial of the vast destruction of our families epitomized by vaccine-caused autism and myriad other serious vaccine injuries.


Dr. Ronald N Kostoff

We are looking at the trees, and missing the forest, with respect to COVID-19. Let’s focus on the quarantine. It is being implemented more widely in the USA, and in much of the world as well. Those affected most severely by SARS-CoV-2 typically develop pneumonia, and die from pneumonia. That's the official version, but it's far more nuanced and complicated. Some background, first.

I have developed protocols for preventing and reversing chronic diseases, and have applied them to three chronic diseases (CKD, AD, PN/PAD) [1]. The central step of the protocol is identifying the foundational contributing factors to the diseases (i.e., the causes), and eliminating those foundational causes. I use the qualifier 'foundational', since the causes I identify are not other diseases (which much of the medical community uses in part when talking about causes), but rather tangible items that are (in theory) under our control (e.g., smoking, excess alcohol, brominated flame retardants, heavy metals, pesticides, wireless radiation, etc).

For the three chronic diseases I have examined, I have identified anywhere from 500-1000 foundational causes each. Many of these foundational causes (such as those listed above) are pervasive, meaning that they impact multiple diseases. I would expect that pneumonia (the fatal consequence of the present [and SARS-CoV] coronavirus infection) would also have hundreds of foundational causes as well. This is a key point of my argument.

I also studied the SARS coronavirus pandemic of 2002-2003, and published a couple of papers on the topic [2,3]. My key takeaway from those studies was that there were three types of consequences for the people who were exposed to the SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV). One group exhibited no symptoms, and the only measure of exposure was SARS coronavirus antibodies in their blood (tested for other reasons). The second group exhibited symptoms characteristic of respiratory infections, and recovered after some level of discomfort. There were about 8,000 people globally who exhibited these symptoms, and went for medical care. The third group mainly developed pneumonia, and died from the pneumonia. There were about 800 people globally in this latter group. However, this latter group was not a random selection of the 8,000. Its members had high co-morbidity, weakened immune systems, and tended to be heavily populated by the elderly.

Co-morbidity in common usage is typically used to mean other diseases. From my perspective, each of these diseases is a proxy for the hundreds of foundational factors that contribute to its development. Thus, if we switch co-ordinate systems from diseases to foundational contributing factors, we could then state the third group that succumbed to SARS had high numbers of foundational contributing factors to disease. This is the key point.

In the current COVID-19 pandemic, we see some commonalities with what happened in the SARS pandemic. Most of the deaths in both cases resulted from pneumonia. Most of the deaths are among the elderly, and appear to be most prevalent among those with high co-morbidities and weakened immune systems. Switching co-ordinate systems in our description, most of the fatalities are among those exposed (over their lifetime, as well as currently) to large numbers of contributing factors to disease.

In general, the public is being exposed to a mixture of toxic stimuli, and it is the effect of the mixture that is driving the myriad consequences. Different people will be exposed to different mixtures, and, based on the composition of the mixtures and a person's genetic makeup, will respond differently. There can be substantial synergies among the mixture constituents, resulting in enhanced adverse effects from the combination [4, 5]. The key concept here is that the mixture is determining the outcome, not necessarily any one of its constiuents in isolation.

Now we get to the quarantine. The response of the governments worldwide (including the USA) to COVID-19 has been to restrict exposure to one of the many constituents of the toxic stimuli mixture, SARS-CoV-2. This is one of the few constituents of the mixture that cannot be ascribed to a technology offshoot, or to a technology that has corporate backing (like pesticides, industrial chemical, radiation sources, etc). The present quarantine eliminates only one of the many constituents of the mixture, and it is the component that does not have strong corporate/lobbying backing!

Why are not any of the other constituents of the mixture being placed under quarantine? Why is not smoking, or air pollution, or excess alcohol, or wireless radiation, or agrochemicals, or industrial chemicals, being placed under quarantine? The fatalities supposedly from SARS-CoV-2 have resulted in limited mortalities globally so far, relative to those typically ascribed to the influenza flu virus. The fatalities that can be ascribed to some (perhaps most) other constituents of the mixture are far greater globally, when all their adverse effects are integrated. It is clear from the SARS results (and probably the present COVID-19 results) that exposure to the coronavirus (for the most part) results in no outward symptoms or mild symptoms, in the absence of large numbers of other toxic stimuli. It's not clear the same statement could be made about many of the other components of the toxic stimuli mixture that are spinoffs of modern technology.

The point is we have bought into the mindset and propaganda of the developers and vendors of these other toxic stimuli that the one constituent of the mixture without a strong lobbying group is the dangerous constituent, and the required approach for protection is quarantine from that one constituent. I would argue that the more protective quarantine, for the current pandemic and against future pandemics, would be to impose quarantines against the intrinsically toxic constituents of the mixture. Whether they would have the same very-short-term benefits as the coronavirus quarantine is questionable, but from the long-term perspective, the broader quarantine would be very protective against future viral attacks, including the annual influenza flu infections.

Sometimes analogies can be instructive. Consider the following. We have this big house in the desert, and we have neglected the roof for thirty years. Ten large holes have opened up on the roof, and we have delayed their repair. One day, an unexpected massive rainstorm arrives. Water comes pouring through the holes in the roof. We send out an emergency request for help. First responders, neighbors, etc, come to our aid and spend the day with buckets and pumps bailing out the water. They leave, we have survived, but we then do absolutely nothing to repair the holes in the roof. Three years later, another rainstorm, another panic response. Was the rain the cause; was it the holes in the roof; was it both? Would we have worried about the rain if there were no holes in the roof?

It is obvious from this analogy that, to be fully protective, we need both tactical reactive responses to survive the immediate threat and strategic proactive responses to prevent the problem and damage from re-occurring. Toward that end, I have recently published a document on identifying tactical and strategic treatments for COVID-19 [6]. It is Open Access.


[1] Kostoff RN. Prevention and reversal of chronic disease: lessons learned. Georgia Institute of Technology. 2019. PDF.
[2] Kostoff RN. “Literature-Related Discovery: Potential treatments and preventatives for SARS”. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 78:7. 1164-1173. 2011.
[3] Kostoff RN. “The highly cited SARS research literature”. Critical Reviews in Microbiology. 36:4. 299-317. 2010.
[4] Kostoff RN, Goumenou M, Tsatsakis A. The role of toxic stimuli combinations in determining safe exposure limits. Toxicology Reports. 2018; 5; 1169-1172.
[5] Kostoff RN, Heroux P, Aschner M, Tsatsakis A. Adverse health effects of 5G mobile networking technology under real-life conditions. Toxicology Letters (2020). doi:
[6] Kostoff RN. Combining Tactical and Strategic Treatments for COVID-19. Georgia Institute of Technology. 2020. PDF.
Access at:
(Click link or enter into browser)

susan welch

Just watched this. Great stats.


David burd

Your link returns a “Nothing here but fresh air.” Message. Looks like its been scrubbed


Sorry for the lengthy post, but found this and thought I'd share. Numbers do seem to be correct, but don't really have enough data to know for certain what's really going on:

The Sober Math Everyone Must Understand about the Pandemic

Note from Bayareamom: I found this post today and thought I'd share. (Am still conflicted as to the below 'numbers' and the fact that we may be loosening up (in some areas of the country) the quarantine in certain areas however.).

Article written by Jason Scott Warner:

"This is a long post addressing two underlying issues with the current response to the pandemic that leave me concerned. It’s the longest post I’ve ever written.

For those of you not taking action, or believing the pandemic to be “over hyped” I can tell you this is not hype. It’s math. And you need to understand it.


For those of you who don’t know me well, I am analytical and metered. I don’t freak out nor do I respond emotionally. I also don’t post a bunch of bullshit or political or controversial stuff on Facebook. I founded and am CEO of a successful software company that provides SaaS based data, analytics, and dashboards to recruiting departments at companies we all know. As you would expect, I am data driven and fact based. Before founding my company I held executive roles leading very large recruiting teams at some of the world’s fastest growing companies such as Starbucks and Google. At Google I was fortunate enough to report to Sheryl Sandberg before she took the Facebook COO role. I was a Chemical Engineering major in college and have a business degree from a top undergraduate business school. I am not one for hyperbole or histrionics. My bullshit factor is close to zero.

I share all this personal information only to help you understand that I am not a journalist, and I’m here to tell you the whole truth about what is happening with the pandemic and explain the math in simple terms, because that’s why many people do not understand what is happening with the pandemic to the degree required.

Now that I’ve gotten the introduction out of the way, here are two issues I want to bring to everyone’s attention.


One of the current problems with addressing the pandemic is the social pressures of taking action today. It’s awkward, and feels like an over-reaction. The reason it feels like an overreaction is that most people OVERWEIGHT the currently reported cases and inherently UNDERWEIGHT the mathematics of how the virus is spreading and what will happen in about 30 days time. This is because our brains tend to think linearly as opposed to logarithmically. It’s the same reason many people don’t save for retirement or understand compound interest.

To create a new social norm, human beings like to see behavior modeled. This serves as a signal that says, “oh, someone else is doing it so I should do it also.”


I have already isolated my family. We have canceled EVERYTHING. We have canceled previously scheduled doctor visits. Social get togethers. No play dates. Normal routine meetings. Everything has been canceled. It’s difficult and socially awkward. Some of you think I’m crazy, but I’m doing it not because I am afraid, but because I am good at math (more on that in part 2). I had to have my 16 year old daughter quit her job coaching junior gymnasts at the local gym, with one day’s notice and also tell my kids they can’t attend youth group at church. Both of those were tough discussions. I told a very close friend he shouldn’t stay at my house this weekend even though he was planning to and had booked his flight from the Bay Area. I canceled another dear friend’s visit for later this month to go snowboarding on Mt Bachelor.

We are not eating out. Our kids are already doing online school so we don’t have to make changes there. I would not send my kids to school even if they were in public or private school. We have eliminated all non-essential contact with other people. We will only venture out to grocery shop when required. We will still go outside to parks, go mountain biking, hiking, and recreate to keep ourselves sane and do other things as a family, just not with other people. We have stocked up on food and have a supply for ~2 months. We have stocked up on other goods that if depleted would create hardship, like medicines and feminine hygiene products. We have planned for shortages of essential items.


1. Although my family is considered low risk (I’m 49 in good health, Angi is 46 and in good health, and our kids are 14 and 16), we must assume that the healthcare system cannot help us, because the hospitals will become overwhelmed very quickly. Most American hospitals will become overwhelmed in approximately 30 days unless something changes. More on this in part 2 below. So although we are in great health and unlikely to become gravely ill, the risk is greater if you do not have access to the medical care that you need. This is something for everyone to consider. As a society we are accustomed to having access to the best medical care available. Our medical system will be overwhelmed unless we practice social distancing at scale. That said, the medical teams in Italy are seeing an alarming number of cases from people in their 40s and 50s. Triage tents are already going up in the parking lots at many hospitals close to the epicenters in the United States.

2. It’s not a matter of if social distancing will take place, it’s a matter of when. This is because social distancing is the only way to stop the virus today.

As I will explain in part 2 below, starting now is FAR more effective than starting even 2 days from now or tomorrow. This has been proven by Italy and China (and soon to be France and other European countries who have been slow to respond.) [updated as of 3/14 France is now on lockdown mandated by the government]. Wuhan went on lockdown after roughly 400 cases were identified (and they had access to testing that America has systematically failed to do well to date). The US already has more than 4 times this number of known infected cases as Wuhan did when it was shut down, and our citizens are far more mobile and therefore spreading the virus more broadly when compared to Wuhan. Yet our response is tepid at best.

If hand washing and “being smart” were sufficient Italy would not be in crisis. So I pray the draconian measures are coming from our government, because they are required to stop the spread of the virus. It’s better to start sooner than later as the cost is actually far greater if we wait. I pray they close all schools and non-essential services the way that Italy and China have done.

3. Spreading the virus puts those in the high-risk category at much greater risk. This is the moral argument. It’s a strong argument because there are only two ways, as of today, that the virus can be stopped: let it run its course and infect 100s of millions of people, or social distancing. There is no other way today. If you don’t practice social distancing, people downstream from you that you transmit the virus to will die, and many will suffer.

4. The risk of infection is increasing exponentially, because the quantity of infected people, most who will not show symptoms, is doubling every three days. So the longer you wait to self-isolate, the greater the chance of you or someone you love becoming infected and then you infecting others because more of the population is becoming infected. There are twice as many infected people today as there was on Tuesday.

5. The virus is already in your town. It’s everywhere. Cases are typically only discovered when someone gets sick enough to seek medical attention. This is important as it typically takes ~5 days to START showing ANY symptoms. Here’s the math: For every known case there are approximately 50 unknown cases. This is because if I become sick, I infect several people today, and they infect a few people each tomorrow (as do I), and the total count of infected people doubles every 3 days until I get so sick I get hospitalized or get tested and become a “known case”. But in the time it takes me to figure out I am sick 50 others downline from me now have the virus. So every third day the infection rate doubles until I get so sick that I realize I have the virus an am hospitalized or otherwise tested. Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital estimate that there are 50x more infections than known infections as reported (citation below). The implication of this is that the virus is already “everywhere” and spreading regardless if your city has zero, few or many reported cases. So instead of the 1573 reported known cases today there are likely 78,650 cases, at least, in the United States. Which will double to 157,300 by this Sunday. And this will double to 314,600 cases by this coming Wednesday. So in less than 1 week the number of total infected in the United States will quadruple. This is the nature of exponential math. It’s actually unfortunate that we are publishing the figures for known cases as it diverts attention away from more important numbers (like the range of estimated actual cases). [Update as of 3/15/20 — I’ve been sent more research that may add clarity to the ACTUAL cases vs CONFIRMED cases and will update this post with any conclusions]

6. Some people cannot, or will not, practice social distancing for a variety of reasons and will continue to spread the virus to many people. So everyone else must start today.

The reasons above are why I have begun to practice social distancing. It’s not easy. But you must do it. It’s not optional, because the virus is spreading exponentially. Social distancing is the only way to stop the spread of the virus.

The hospitals will be at capacity and there are not enough ventilators or personal protective equipment (PPE). You will hear a lot about this issue in the coming few weeks… the shortage of ventilators and PPE.


Yes, the virus only kills a small percentage of those afflicted. Yes, the flu kills 10s of thousands of people annually. Yes, 80% of people will experience lightweight symptoms with COVID19. Yes the mortality rate of COVID19 is relatively low (1–2%). All of this true, but is immaterial. They are the wrong numbers to focus on…

The nature of exponential math is that the infection rates start slowly, and then goes off like a bomb and overwhelms the hospitals. You will understand this math clearly in the next section and do the short math exercise. Evergreen hospital in Seattle is already in triage. I have heard credible reports from people on the ground that they are already becoming overwhelmed. And the bomb won’t really go off for a few more days. Probably by Wednesday, March 18th (next week). In just a few days from now we will hear grave reports from Seattle hospitals. [update as of 3/15/20 — see the comments section below for an update from a staff member at Evergreen Hospital in Kirkland, WA]

You should assume the virus is everywhere at this point, even if you have no confirmed cases in your area.


STEP 1: To further understand exponential growth, take the number of confirmed cases in your area and multiply by 10 (or 50 if you believe Harvard and Massachusetts General estimations) to account for the cases that are not yet confirmed. If you have no confirmed cases choose a small number. I’d suggest 10 cases in your city, if no cases are yet reported. But you can use whatever number you like. This number of infected people doubles every ~3 days as the infection spreads. So literally take your number, and multiply by 2. Then do it again. Then do it again. Then do it again. Do this multiplication exercise 10 times in total.

2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x (the number of estimated infections in your city today (not just the reported cases)).

This result is the estimate for the actual cases in your area 30 days from now. The math will take 30 seconds to complete with a calculator and you must do it to understand the math to see how it grows. This end number is the number of cases in your city 30 days from today if a large percentage of the population do not practice social distancing.

Example from where I live in Bend, Oregon:

6 confirmed cases x 10 = 60 Actual Cases. (as of 3/18/20)

60 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 61,440 COVID Positive cases in 30 days. This is 60% of the population of Bend, Oregon. This is not hype. It’s how exponential math works, which is what the virus is using against all of us,

2 to the 10th power is 1024. When something doubles 10 times, it’s the same as multiplying by 1024. This is not hype, it’s math. The infection rate of the virus doubles every 3 days. In thirty days there will be 1,024 times the number of infected people in your area as there is today if your community does not immediately put extreme social distancing into practice.

PART 2: THIS NEXT PART OF THE EXERCISE IS SUPER IMPORTANT: Next calculate 15% (multiply by 0.15) of that final 30 day number of total infected people (the number you calculated by multiplying by 2 ten times). This will provide an estimate of the serious COVID positive cases which will require hospitalization, and compare it to the number of beds and ventilators available at your local hospital. Google the “number of beds” and the name of your local hospital now. It takes 2 seconds and the number of beds is easy to find. Write this number of total beds at your local hospital down.

Example using Bend, Oregon: 0.15 x 6,144 total cases = 921 COVID Positive cases in 30 days that will require hospitalization to recover (if we don’t practice extreme social distancing and do it well).

PART 3: But, on average 65% of beds are already occupied by patients unrelated to the coronavirus. Some hospitals are at 90% or 95% capacity already. So multiply the number of beds at your local hospital by 0.35 (35%) and that is how many beds are available for COVID Positive patients.

Example: St Charles in Bend, Oregon where I live, has 226 beds and the town is roughly 100,000 people. Some hospitals run much closer to maximum capacity, including St. Charles, but let’s stick with the nationwide average of 35%. Therefore, unfilled beds at St Charles is 0.35 x 226 = 79 beds to treat COVID Positive patients who require hospitalization to recover.

THIS IS THE BIG PROBLEM: Bend only has 79 unfilled beds but without extreme social distancing will have 921 COVID Positive patients 30 days from now. HOW ARE WE GOING TO TREAT THE OTHER 842 PATIENTS THAT REQUIRE HOSPITALIZATION TO RECOVER? (We would need 3.7 more hospitals the size of St Charles, each with 226 beds).

It’s math, it’s not hype, and it’s why whole countries are going on lockdown.

FINAL STEP: Multiply the total number of beds at your local hospital by 0.35 to understand how many beds can be used for COVID patients in your area and compare to your the numbers from Step 1 and Step 2 for your area. See the problem? This is why governments are locking down cities and countries around the world.

I pray you believe the math, because there are other issues: Most hospitals have on average, 40 or fewer ventilators. 5% of patients require ICU treatment and most of these require ventilators. There are very few ICU beds compared to regular beds in hospitals, which have negative pressurization to keep airborne diseases from spreading throughout the hospital. There are very few negative pressure areas in any hospital to deal with the containment of airborne diseases. Hospitals don’t have enough personal protective equipment like masks and PAPR hoods (Google it).

These numbers you just calculated are The Big Problem: Too many patients, not enough beds, and a serious shortage of ventilators, masks and other PPE if we don’t practice extreme social distancing.


And by medical care I mean not just coronavirus patients. Your son or daughter that needs acute care surgery this May for his badly broken leg will be attended to by an orthopedic doctor that has been working at maximum capacity and working 18 hour shifts for 7 days every week for 6 weeks because it was required to care for all the coronavirus patients at her hospital. Or the orthopedic surgeon will be sick with the virus and your son or daughter will be operated on in a tent in the hospital parking lot by a non-expert or a member of the National Guard. Your elderly Mom that has diabetes and goes into acute distress next month may not receive ANY medical care because the doctors are consumed and have to prioritize patients based on triage guidelines based on success rate probabilities. Your sibling’s family that are all injured in a terrible car crash in June will have diminished care. If one of them needs a ventilator there will be none available because all of them will be in use by critical coronavirus patients. Your young friend with cancer and a compromised immune system from treatment will succumb even though the cancer was curable and the treatment was working, because their body was too fragile to combat the coronavirus due to the chemotherapy and they couldn’t receive the customized, acute care required due to the hospital being overwhelmed. All of the above is currently happening in Italy, who had the same number of infections we have today just 2 weeks ago. You must start social distancing today.

The count of actual virus infections doubles every ~3 days. The news and government agencies are lagging in their response. So we hear that the US only has 1573 cases today (3/12/20) [update as of 3/15/20: 3115 confirmed cases), ( see and it doesn’t seem like a lot. It would be better to report the estimated actual cases, since reported cases don’t tell us much. However, we know from China that the actual number of cases are at least an order of magnitude greater than the reported cases, because people get infected and do not display symptoms. In math, an “order of magnitude” means ten times difference, or put another way, a factor of 10. 100 is 10 times greater than 10, so it’s an order of magnitude greater.

Harvard Medical School / Massachusetts General Hospital just released their estimate (recording is here:…/53a4003de5ab4b4da5…) that the actual cases are 50x greater than the reported cases. So we likely have 75,000 cases in the United States already. The number of reported cases is not that important.

But let’s assume the current number of cases is only 10,000 ACTUAL cases in the United States just to be conservative and model out what will happen:

If we don’t stop the virus from spreading, in 30 days we will have 2 to the 10th power more cases of infected people because the infection count doubles every 3 days (the virus doubles every 3 days and there are 10, 3 day periods in 30 days).

This math is familiar if you did the exercise above. If not, go up and do the math exercise. Seriously. It’s important. The math: 2 to the 10th power means 1,024 times as many cases as we have today (2 times 2 repeated 10 times).

This number is a catastrophically big problem for all of us: We will have 10 million+ actual cases (10,000 actual cases today x 1,024) in the United States in just 30 days’ time if we continue without extreme social distancing. 10 million people with the virus. And it will keep doubling every 3 days unless we practice social distancing.

15% of cases require significant medical attention, which means that 1.5 million people will require significant medical attention if 10 million people get infected (15% of 10 Million total infections = 1.5 million people requiring hospitalization).

1.5 million hospitalizations is way more than we have beds for at hospitals in the United States. And 65% of all beds are already occupied in our hospitals. But many patients (5%) with the virus need ICU beds, not just any old hospital bed. Only about 10% of hospital beds are considered intensive care beds. So we will have a huge bed shortage, but that is not the biggest problem, as we can erect temporary ICU shelters and bring in more temporary beds, as Italy has already done, and California and Washington hospitals have already done. Evergreen Hospital in Seattle has already erected temporary triage tents in the parking lot as of 3/13/20. All regular beds are full at Evergreen Hospital as of 3/14/20.

Once the government of China, Norway, and Italy came to understand this math, they reacted accordingly and shut EVERYTHING down. [update as of 3/15/20 now France has done the same lockdown]. Extreme social distancing is the only response available to stop the virus today. The United States is not responding well nor are other countries like the UK. Countries that do not respond well will pay a much larger, catastrophic price.

But hospital beds are not the big problem. The lack of ventilators is the big problem. Most estimates peg the ventilators in the United States at roughly 100,000 to 150,000 units. See the study from last month:…/200214-VentilatorA…

The primary and most serious comorbid (comorbid is a medical term that means co-existing or happening at the same time) condition brought on by the Coronavirus is something called bilateral interstitial pneumonia which requires ventilators for treatment of seriously ill patients. So if 1.5M people of the 10 million infected 30 days from now require hospital care (15% of the 10M estimated total infections), 1.3M may not get the care that they need because we don’t have enough ventilators, beds, and ICU beds in the United States. And remember, this is only if ALL OF US EFFECTIVELY start social distancing by April 11th (30 days from today). This increases the mortality rate significantly.


If everyone takes extreme measures to social distance, and the United States can dramatically reduce the spread of the virus 12 days from now, the math is very different, as the exponential growth will only be 2 to the 4th power (12 days divided by the doubling rate of every 3 days equals the exponent of 4):

2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16

So instead of 10 Million cases in the United States if we wait 30 days, if we act 18 days sooner, we will have only 160,000 cases (16 times the estimated 10,000 actual cases as of today), of which 15% are likely to require hospitalization. This is 24,000 critical patients (a huge difference compared to 1.5 million acute patients). The difference between taking extreme measures now, versus waiting even a few days, is very large due to how exponents work in math.

THE OUTCOME IS EVEN BETTER IF WE TAKE ACTION IN THE NEXT 6 DAYS: If the vast majority of the population self isolates and implements social distancing in only 6 days from now the exponential math is 2 to the 2nd power (6 days divided by the 3 days it takes the virus to double means the exponent is only 2). In math this is “two squared”.

2 x 2 = 4

Multiplied by the estimated 10,000 ACTUAL cases as of today (3/12/20) that means only 40,000 total cases will develop, 15% of which may be critical which is 6,000 critical patients.

This is why you should share this post broadly. If people begin social distancing in the next 6 days it will greatly reduce the impact on all of us. It’s why they say a “post goes viral”.


Finally, the longer everyone waits to practice significant social distancing the greater the economic hardship will be on all of us. Lost jobs. Mortgage defaults. Closed businesses. Bankruptcies. All will be minimized if you start social distancing today.

Some of the reasons the economic impacts will be reduced are worth mentioning: If we stop the virus now the overall duration of the outbreak will be far shorter. The stock market will normalize more quickly and recover more quickly. Businesses and people will be able to survive a shorter duration outbreak vs a longer duration outbreak. More companies will avoid bankruptcy if we begin to practice social distancing now.

This is a big financial reason to begin social distancing if you are employed by any company: if companies see that the virus is being slowed, they will be less likely to conduct layoffs. You will be more likely to be laid off or experience a job-related event if we don’t practice social distancing immediately. As an HR executive, I’ve been involved in many, many layoffs. It’s the last thing companies want to do. But if they see that the pandemic will be shorter lived vs long and drawn out, they are less likely to make the permanent decision of laying off staff.

The overall economic impact that hits your bank account will be greater if you wait or you don’t practice social distancing. This is why Norway acted now, because it’s less economic impact to take drastic measures early than to do them later, and it saves a lot of lives and suffering by doing so. And Norway has only one confirmed death as of this writing.

Many people have suggested they want to support local restaurants and other businesses, who have seen sales drop by 50–90%. Stopping by and visiting them won’t save them. What will save them is social distancing and what you do after the pandemic is over. If you are concerned, call them and buy a gift certificate over the phone.


Finally, the article that I posted yesterday written by Tomas Pueyo has been read 30M times in the last few days and has been updated with new information. It’s worth reading again.

Here’s that link:…/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-d…

Other up to date data I frequently consult regarding the pandemic is here:

I hope this is helpful and useful. My brain focuses on the math and I try and be fact based in my analysis and interpretation of how I should respond.


MY FINAL PARTING THOUGHT: Please share or forward this post at your discretion. If everyone shares this post and two of your friends share this post and so on, we use the power of exponential math to work in our favor, which seems appropriate given the virus is using that same exponential math against us.

HOW YOU CAN REALLY HELP: If you know people who have large numbers of followers, or people in the media, please leverage your personal relationship with them and ask them to amplify this post by sharing it.

It would be useful to get the post on Twitter and LinkedIn. If you know people in government this fact-based post may help inform them to make the best decisions. I am not active on Twitter.

It’s time for us humans to go on the offensive against the virus. We must fight back.

There is only one way to do so: Social Distancing.

Do it today.

NOTE: Anyone, including the media, is free to use this post, any related content, in all or in part, for any purpose, in any format, with no attribution required. Please direct message me if you have other ideas for how to raise awareness.

Finally, I can no longer keep up with friend requests given how much this post has been shared. To receive updates or follow me, please use the “Follow” button on Facebook. My page Facebook page is here, or follow me here on Medium (or both!).

My facebook page:

If anyone wants to translate this into any other language please do so and contact me and I’ll repost it in that language."

Angus Files

Trump-More people will loose their life by suicide after losing their jobs and businesses than death from the virus....Deaths from Corona lower than 1% of the population.. Hinting 7 days to re-open for’s a medical problem and its not becoming a long term economy problem.

Ingraham Angle

Pharma For Prison


david m burd

Kat, good have your rational thoughts.

THE takeaway from the present hysteria is it has been The Mainstream Media "pours gas on the fire". They no longer exist thanks to the $billions of dollars of Pharma Advertising going to all the news outlets including the TV/radio/print/newspaper industries.

Some excellent national media reporters - going back 15 years - include ABC's Nick Regush, who was fired because he aired serious doubts about the veracity of the Medical Industry claims. Regush started a national website called Red Flags, but after Nick's death, Red Flags faded away.

The absolutely corrupt partnership between Big Pharma/NIAID/CDC/FDA and our National Media rules us today, leaving AoA and many small entities to air truths.


And while we contemplate the numbers of deaths by flu, death by coronavirus; just what is the real rate of autism?
I would like to know that one, but the CDC gets numbers from this state, or that state, and do this and that to it, all the while Re deciding what is really autism or a communication problem in the DSM V or is it VI or more by now?


Soooo, is it really bad cause we are all vaccinated to the hilt that our immune systems would really react to this coronavirus; in a full blown asthma pneumonia attack? Is there such a thing?

Or is it a government/health tyrannical rule taking control of the masses, and ruling by fear?

Or was it a darn bio weapon that got out, and there is more health problems coming down the pipes of those that get it?

Or was it a darn bio weapon that scared the living daylights out of those morons that -- what ever.

Or is it just another cry wolf?


“I’d suggest we focus on the rates – in symptomatic cases – of hospitalization and the rates of critical cases.“

Thank you! Everything else just feels like a shell game.

The constant state of panic, along with the conditioning of our culture to seek answers to be fed, is thwarting the opportunity for each person to ask big questions.

Why do humans seems to be in a growing state of “disease” at growing rates? Cancer, heart attack, stroke, arthritis, autism, depression. Both body and mind.

Nature vs nurture. Environment vs development.

Would be amazing if we could wave a wand and remove GMO foods, chemical contraception, pesticides, fluoridated water, and toxic substances in our streams and lakes and rivers and air. While keeping the healthier practices in agriculture, technology, business, and wellness.

I keep returning to a CNN story from June 2019 about a small but robust group of individuals who had gathered to protest the construction of a third garbage burning facility in their city, when the people (adults and children) were already suffering chronic lung and other medical conditions because of the terrible air quality for a decade. What brave people? What city? Wuhan.

There was a reason why so many people in that city were hit with the more critical reaction to this flu. If it had surfaced in a fresh air town of otherwise healthy individuals, would would not have this same story unfolding?

There is no reason why our bodies should not be able to battle off a majority of “bugs”. Especially if we have sunshine, sleep, nutrition, and decent handwashing. Why should we be afraid of coming onslaughts of “future pandemics” that are waiting in the wings, as is being promoted by the WHO, the CDC, and Mr. Gates?

Why can we not have rational conversations about the timelines over vaccines? Examine rates of infection declining naturally. Acknowledge strange increases in other diseases and conditions post vaccine?

We absolutely must ask the big questions now and risk sounding like alarmists for doing so. Am looking forward to digging through this site, as it seems like a community that has long been in the practice of good questions.

Peace be with you.


Thank you Dr Weiler! I also found something intriguing about the the Covid-19 reported mortality figures. Over at Skeptical Raptor I was commenting that there was wide variation in mortality rates when we check Worldometer cases, and this variation was likely due from some countries testing more and finding more cases, resulting in lower mortality figures. Germany, for instance, was reporting a very low mortality rate of 0.37 relative to other countries.

I was subsequently challenged by another commenter to provide evidence that increased testing correlated with lower mortality for the various countries. Sure enough, I found a source providing the number of testings by countries. Searching the population total for those countries, I was able to calculate the percentage tested by population. I went on to input this figure and reported mortality rates in a linear regression calculator, and sure enough my suspicion was confirmed. The result was a negative slope confirming that increased testing was correlating with decreased mortality. I also obtained a result suggesting that projected testing of 1% (most countries have tested far less!) would yield a very low mortality figure of 0.34%.

All said, there are very good reasons to be suspicious of the claims that Covid-19 is so much more deadly than the flu. I believe when the outbreak resolves their mortality rates will be in line, and Covid-19 will go down in history as the mother of all public health overreactions.

Countries / Percent of population tested / Worldometer mortality figures (March 20th)

Italy 0.34 9.99
Iran 0.09 7.55
Spain 0.06 5.40
China 0.02 4.03
France 0.05 3.88
Netherlands 0.03 3.74
Japan 0.01 3.41
Belgium 0.16 2.38
Canada 0.15 1.43
USA 0.03 1.25
South Korea 0.61 1.16
Switzerland 0.05 1.16
Sweden 0.14 1.13
UK 0.06 1.11*
Denmark 0.19 0.98
Australia 0.46 0.65
Germany 0.20 0.37
Norway 0.81 0.32
Austria 0.17 0.27

*It came to my attention a few days later that the mortality figure for UK was incorrect. Unable to get the accurate figure, they are excluded from the calculation.

david m burd

James Lyons-Weiler, and so many others, make a fundamental error when talking about U.S. annual influenza deaths, thus making all comparative illness/mortality stats worthless (such as Covid19).

Here is THE "Rosetta Stone" of medical documents that I have shared here on AoA many times.

It reveals, prior to year 2013, the rock-solid fact that the typical annual pneumonia mortality is 40 times greater than influenza mortality; some years it will vary quite a bit, but look for yourselves. However, starting 2014 the CDC made a corrupt decision to combine flu and pneumonia into one stat, and ALSO deviously reverse the phrase deaths were due to "influenza/pneumonia" instead of the prior "pneumonia/influenza" that give the ignorant Mainstream Media to now broadcast the combined death toll as all being from influenza.

Thus, Lyons-Weiler repeats the lie (from the CDC) that so far this year there have been 22,000 Flu deaths, when analyses of all medical reporting information is that is maybe one-tenth (or less). As a comparison, stats from Canada and the UK (very similar demographics as the U.S.) have so far this wintertime flu season tallied but about 300 influenza deaths. Of course since the UK has but 60 million people compared to U.S of 330 million could boost the U.K. (apples to apples) flu deaths to about 1,600.

One more extremely important truth: From many medical reports, the typical annual "pneumonia" mortality in the U.S. is close to 50,000 every year. Thus the combined total of influenza/pneumonia totals of about 54,000 (on average) reveals (in this example) that a maximum of flu deaths would be about 4,000 - NOT the 22,000, with even higher numbers spouted on the CDC website. The CDC continually plays a shell game, lies about true flu mortality, driven by their passion to promote the toxic flu vaccine that has long been destroying babies and seniors, and everyone alike.

All anybody, including Lyons-Weiler, has to do is absorb the truth revealed in the above American Lung Association report.

Bob Moffit

The problem of ascertaining accurate numbers of FLU DEATHS from various countries reminds me of something Joseph Stalin is reported to have said:

“Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.”

Unfortunately those 'COUNTING FLU DEATHS" can claim any number they want to promote whatever unknown agenda they may have.


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