Earlier this year I happened to note in a letter (dated 26 May 2017) to British Medical Journal Rapid Responses that 599,972 reports had accumulated on US Vaccine Adverse Events System since it started back in 1990 and out of curiosity decided to see how it had advanced (using the Medalerts website rather than the CDC’s) and found on 17 October 2017 that it had progressed to 607,223. On this basis I made the calculation that almost exactly 50 cases a day had been added in the interim. My first thought was that this was rather a lot, when actually it was rather a little. This would yield a rate of 18,250 cases a year whereas in the previous two years the rate had been close to 50,000 or around 130 reports a day.
I do not know whether the problem is that the database is just incomplete for later reports, but then you would have expected more cases to have accumulated from earlier in the year as well. It maybe if we look back in six months a further 80 cases per day will have accumulated for the period, or about 11,500 cases. What does not seem likely is that there was a dramatic spontaneous decline in case reporting.
Either way it is a daunting proposition. The database has in recent year been accumulating at more than 100 reports a day and as I pointed out back in May 2015 and as Del Bigtree pointed out in his new TV program last week because VAERS is a passive reporting system it may only represent 1% of cases.
Of course, health officials and web trolls will always point out that these are not confirmed cases, but the truth is that within the official system there are never any confirmed cases, even cases where awards have been made for damage. The fundamental flaw is that unless there is an independent system of active monitoring “they” will be left playing the game of hit and run – of automatic denial – till Kingdom Come. Meanwhile, we can assume that 130 cases a day is a very small percentage of the true figure. And not to have an independent active monitoring system - so long as we have a program, or even allow products to be marketed - is a fraud on the public.
John Stone is UK Editor for Age of Autism.