By Mark Blaxill
On Friday March 27th, the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) issued its latest
California Measles Surveillance Update on “an outbreak of measles [that] started in Disneyland in Orange County, California, and spread to the community” and provided support for our proposal that the outbreak is now over. Last week (see HERE), based on the previous weeks’ surveillance update (March 20th) Age of Autism made the first public prediction that the Disneyland measles outbreak was over. The reason for our prediction was because CDPH had for the first time given a future date when they would declare the outbreak officially over based on the length of time that had elapsed since the last confirmed infectious case. They also reported no new cases for the first time since they began publishing updates in early February.
In the March 27 update, CDPH confirmed that our prediction is holding. The predicted official end of the epidemic is still April 17th. There was one additional “confirmed” case report that was “presumed to be linked to the outbreak,” but this new report was not a recent case.
CDPH also confirmed an analysis first offered by Age of Autism. Following last week’s update, we spoke to a CDPH spokesman and followed up with some questions in writing, including the following. “For this last reported case, then, would it also be fair to estimate that the date of rash onset was approximately March 2nd, and the date of infection sometime in late February?” Despite receiving no response, in our report, Age of Autism speculated that March 2nd was the date of onset of the rash. We still have not yet received a direct response to our query, but last Friday’s update confirmed that that our estimate was correct, with CDPH writing that “The latest confirmed measles case had rash onset on March 2nd, 2015.”
We’ll continue to track the rapid expiration of the Disneyland measles outbreak.
Mark Blaxill is Editor-At-Large for Age of Autism.