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Open Letter to Michael Gerson RE: The Disease of Vaccine Denialism

Science Summary: The Familial Risk of Autism

  Science post imageThe Familial Risk of Autism

Sven Sandin, MSc; Paul Lichtenstein, PhD; Ralf Kuja-Halkola, MSc; Henrik Larsson, PhD;
Christina M. Hultman, PhD; Abraham Reichenberg, PhD

IMPORTANCE Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) aggregates in families, but the individual risk
and to what extent this is caused by genetic factors or shared or nonshared environmental
factors remains unresolved.

OBJECTIVE To provide estimates of familial aggregation and heritability of ASD.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A population-based cohort including 2 049 973
Swedish children born 1982 through 2006.We identified 37 570 twin pairs, 2 642 064 full
sibling pairs, 432 281 maternal and 445 531 paternal half sibling pairs, and 5 799 875 cousin
pairs. Diagnoses of ASD to December 31, 2009 were ascertained.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The relative recurrence risk (RRR) measures familial
aggregation of disease. The RRR is the relative risk of autism in a participant with a sibling or
cousin who has the diagnosis (exposed) compared with the risk in a participant with no
diagnosed family member (unexposed).We calculated RRR for both ASD and autistic disorder
adjusting for age, birth year, sex, parental psychiatric history, and parental age.We estimated
how much of the probability of developing ASD can be related to genetic (additive and
dominant) and environmental (shared and nonshared) factors.
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RESULTS In the sample, 14 516 children were diagnosed with ASD, of whom 5689 had autistic
disorder. The RRR and rate per 100 000 person-years for ASD among monozygotic twins was
estimated to be 153.0 (95%CI, 56.7-412.8; rate, 6274 for exposed vs 27 for unexposed ); for
dizygotic twins, 8.2 (95%CI, 3.7-18.1; rate, 805 for exposed vs 55 for unexposed); for full
siblings, 10.3 (95%CI, 9.4-11.3; rate, 829 for exposed vs 49 for unexposed); for maternal half
siblings, 3.3 (95%CI, 2.6-4.2; rate, 492 for exposed vs 94 for unexposed); for paternal half
siblings, 2.9 (95%CI, 2.2-3.7; rate, 371 for exposed vs 85 for unexposed); and for cousins, 2.0
(95%CI, 1.8-2.2; rate, 155 for exposed vs 49 for unexposed). The RRR pattern was similar for
autistic disorder but of slightly higher magnitude.We found support for a disease etiology
including only additive genetic and nonshared environmental effects. The ASD heritability
was estimated to be 0.50 (95%CI, 0.45-0.56) and the autistic disorder heritability was
estimated to 0.54 (95%CI, 0.44-0.64).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among children born in Sweden, the individual risk of ASD
and autistic disorder increased with increasing genetic relatedness. Heritability of ASD and
autistic disorder were estimated to be approximately 50%. These findings may inform the
counseling of families with affected children.

Comments

Oren Evans

Using a Logical Progression to Determine the Cause of Autism.

Researchers agree that the cause of autism is likely the combination of a hereditary predisposition and an environmental trigger. The University of Rochester found a common hereditary trait among a group with autism. Their visual response times were twice as fast as normal. If this is the common hereditary trait that predisposes a child to autism then we must determine what characteristic of a fast visual response time is capable of altering the brain. A 1998 study unrelated to autism was conducted using EEG technology to determine the effect of the flicker from fluorescent lights on humans. Interestingly the brain waves of all persons were distorted by fluorescent light but the faster the visual response time a person had the greater the distortion. We now have a mechanism that distorts brain waves and a group that can suffer the greatest brain wave distortions and they have autism. Did these brain wave distortions cause abnormal neural connections and pathways in their fragile infant brains resulting in autism? Nothing can be done about the hereditary component of autism but we can limit the exposure to the environmental trigger, fluorescent, mercury vapor, sodium vapor and LED lighting.
If a study was conducted involving 2,000 infants who were kept away from fluorescent lighting until they were 4 years old and none of them became autistic it would prove that this hypothesis is correct. No one would dispute the results. There are over 350,000 Amish and they don’t use electricity and have no autism. Two Dr.s, Frank Noonan and kevin Strass, one in Ohio and one in PA, who have treated the Amish for 40 years and have no ax to grind, say they have never seen autism among the Amish. There was a group that tried to find autism among the Amish. They tested 1899 children and claimed to find 7 with autism. It was later found that only 3 tested as autistic on both tests that they were using. There is a huge overlap of symptoms between high functioning autism and other conditions so it’s probable that the Dr.s are right and none of them were autistic.
Correlation does not equal causation. The correlation between the age that children are vaccinated and when they become autistic happens over and over again but that is only one correlation. When you have multiple correlations involving different situations, multiple matching time lines and potential explanations for known data you build up a large bank of circumstantial evidence. When the circumstantial evidence becomes overwhelming you then have proof beyond a reasonable doubt.
Things that produce the circumstantial evidence:
(1) Autism starts in the 1930’s
(2) First description in 1943
(3) Rapid increase after 1985
(4) High prevalence in NICUs
(5) High prevalence in day cares
(6) High prevalence in the Pacific NW
(7) Seasonal variation
(8) 4/1 male to female ratio in the US
(9) High prevalence in countries using 50 cycle electricity
(10) Close to 3/1 male to female ratio in the UK
(11) Correlation between income and autism
(12) Correlation between freeways and autism
(13) The lack of autism among the Amish
(14) The fast visual response time of all persons with autism
(15) Regression into autism after vaccination
The flickering light hypothesis can provide an explanation for each of these 14 things:
(1) Mercury vapor lights were invented around 1910. They were large and only used outdoors and for large buildings such as warehouses. They were redesigned for residential use around 1930 and later internally coated with fluorescent material to improve the color spectrum. The fluorescent version became commercially available in 1938.
(2) Dr. Leo Kanner wrote the first description of autism in 1943 base on 11 children born in the 1930’s, when flickering light began residential use. Dr. Kanner stated that this was a new, never before seen condition. Note: In 1896 when the standards for electricity were set if the frequency had been set at 200 CPS or higher no one would have autism.
(3) The prevalence of autism gradually increased until 1985 after which a rapid increase began and continues. This timeline matches the beginning of the use of CFLs. The CFL provides an easy way to put fluorescent light into every room in the house, not just the bath, kitchen and utility rooms.
(4) The infants in NICUs are exposed to fluorescent light 24/7. The lower the birth weight the greater the risk for autism, the lower the birth weight the longer in NICU.
(5) Over 95% of day cares are in strip malls or standalone commercial buildings all lit with fluorescent light. These are one of the largest autism threats that we have.
(6) There is a correlation between autism and rainfall in the Pacific NW. The abnormal number of dreary overcast days in that area requires an increased use of artificial lighting, a portion of which is fluorescent causing an increase in the prevalence of autism.
(7) Children conceived in the winter have a higher prevalence of autism. Children conceived in the winter are born just prior to the darkest days of the year requiring more artificial light when their brains are the youngest and most fragile.
(8) Evolutionary forces during our hunter-gatherer period caused males to have a faster visual response time than females. Remember the faster the visual response time the more the brain waves are distorted. If the bell curves for males, females, autistics and the general population are compared it indicates that 6% of males and 1.5% of females are at risk, this is the 4/1 ratio observed in autism
(9) The slower flicker rate of 50 CPS electricity means that a greater percentage of children will be at risk. This raises the prevalence in those countries.
(10) In countries using 50 CPS electricity the bell curve work indicates that the number of females increases more than the males on a percentage basis, this lowers the male/female ratio closer to 3/1. This ratio has been confirmed by the University College of London.
(11) In New Jersey families earning more than $90,000/year are more than twice as likely to have an autistic child as a family earning less than $30,000/year. There is also a correlation between the median income and autism prevalence for each state. This is likely due to the correlation between income and use of day cares.
(12) There are areas in very close proximity to freeways in California that have a higher than normal prevalence of autism. None could be found along major roads with similar traffic and proximity. The only difference is the use of street lighting on the freeways. This housing is close enough that the light falls on the back, typically bedroom side of the house. The intensity of the light isn’t important only the frequency. If it’s light enough to produce a flickering image it’s a problem.
(13) The Amish vaccinate over 60% of their children so that’s not a concern. To suggest that they have such a narrow DNA profile that they are not at risk for autism when everything else in this paper points to flickering light is just grasping at straws trying to discredit this hypothesis.
(14) I believe the reason other researchers haven’t picked up on this hypothesis is they think the fast visual response time is a symptom of the autistic condition. Nothing could be farther from the truth, they became autistic because they inherited a fast visual response time or they may not have found the old EEG study that was unrelated to autism and made the connection.
(15) Large studies prove that vaccinations do not cause autism so the regression must be caused by the flickering environment in the exam room. A closed room without any ambient light to mitigate the flicker effect is the worse case scenario.
In conclusion I fail to understand why this information isn’t made public since it’s free and harmless to try. Even if the chance that it’s correct is small the risk/reward is astronomical.

cia parker

Barry,
You are right, it is not directly inheritable. However, there are genes which predispose to succumbing to vaccine damage. In my family, my brother and I reacted to the DPT with screaming syndrome (encephalitis) and grew up with Asperger's (unsuspected at the time). I have 13 cousins. None of us had autism. In this new generation, my daughter, the older of my brother's two sons, and a cousin's daughter, all reacted to vaccines with autism. My mother reacted in the '30s to a diphtheria vaccine with GI disease and Asperger's (again, unsuspected at the time). Her GI disease was extremely severe, permanent constipation, and from the time she reacted at four years old, had to have an enema every day for the rest of her life. My father reacted to a flu vaccines with paralysis for the last three years of his life (and he lost his voice for a month right after a flu vaccine in November 1999, another sign of mercury poisoning), and my mother developed Alzheimer's from the yearly flu vaccines at the same time he was paralyzed. And I reacted to a tetanus booster with both arms being paralyzed the same day, brachial plexus neuropathy, and went on to develop MS. But no vaccines, no problem. We obviously have a gene that predisposes us to vaccine damage, and if there were any real science in the US, scientists would be researching our genetic makeup and that of other families with clusters of autism etc.

Benedetta

This is the problem with statistical data.
I don't doubt for a minute that familes have groupings of autism; and a quick - knee jerk reaction is "genetics"

12 generations of rats -- later after their ancestor eat some kind of pesticide -that retaught their immune system and have some kind of neurological disorder - does not make it genetic.

Dang it and hang 'em -- they well know that the immune system is a whole differnt thing -- tons of medical literature, tons of EPA regulations of how to hold these test.

And a study done on pregnant women that it is the turning on of the immune system - when they have the flu or a vaccine for that matter will cause their child to be born with autism has got around and spoken about even in the IACC meetings --- Did Throsen do this study -- he is in the neighborhood - Did CDC send them a bunch more money???

Barry

According to Dr. Mayer Eisenstein of Homefirst Medical services:

" My partners and I have over 35,000 patients who have never been vaccinated. You know how many cases of autism we have seen? ZERO, ZERO…"

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE:

Among 35,000 completely unvaccinated children, the individual risk of ASD and autistic disorder has nothing whatsoever to do with genetics. Heritability of ASD and autistic disorder were estimated to be exactly 0%.

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