By Jim Thompson
The following is a mathematical model based on curve fitting of data from Baskin et al (2003) from cultured human brain cells exposed to Thimerosal in a laboratory environment. It does not represent data observed for brain cells within a human body. The purpose of this toxicity model is to illustrate how the Baskin study might be used to provide guidance for further study and offer insights into the potential for Thimerosal preserved vaccines toxicity to human brain cells when administered to children.
The mathematical model is based on the following:
The Thimerosal preserved flu shot recommended by the FDA and CDC for 6 month old children and pregnant women has approximately 25 micrograms (ug) of mercury. Currently there are an estimated 83 million flu vaccine doses preserved with Thimerosal.
The human brain has an estimated 100 billion brain cells.
Ball et al estimated a median weight for 6 month old females to be 7.21 kilograms. See page 1150.
The whole body weight-weight ratio of mercury after a single flu shot is calculated at 25 ug / 7.21 kg or 3.47 parts per billion. This is a 17.3 mercury nanomolar concentration.
Baskin et al measured a failure rate of laboratory cultured human neurons, after 6 hours, as follows: "Assessment of 200 cells per well randomly, using the fluorescent microscope, revealed that active caspase-3 was expressed in 20% of the cells at 2 uM [micro molar concentration] thimerosal, 26% at 10 uM thimerosal, 83% at 50 uM thimerosal, and 97% of the neurons at 250 uM thimerosal concentration. In the controls, less than 1% of the cells was caspase-3–positive, due to cell death naturally occurring in the cell cultures." See Baskin et al, 2003, p. 365,.
Using Mathcad 2001 Professional a non-linear, mono-exponential regression model (see Equation 1) was made using the Mathcad least squares solution method called Minerr. Data was taken from the Baskin reported laboratory cultured brain cell failure rate at a 6 hour exposure time referenced above. While the overall Baskin results were limited to a minimum level of toxicity of one micromolar (uM) of mercury concentration for human neuron damage in a cultured laboratory experiment, the authors stated that “These results indicate that additional research is needed to more fully delineate the dose- and time-dependent toxicity of thimerosal in sub-micromolar concentrations…”
Consequently the following equation is proposed as a model of the failure rate, at a 6 hour exposure time, for cultured neurons in a laboratory environment after extrapolation from a micromolar concentration range of mercury exposure down to a nanomolar (nM) concentration range of mercury exposure and for the number of neurons approaching that estimated in the human brain:
Eq. 1 Cultured Neuron % failure rate for nanomolar Thimerosal mercury exposure at 6 hours
The failure rate at the whole body burden value of 3.47 parts per billion Thimerosal based mercury (17.3 nM), equivalent to the whole body exposure for a 6 month old girl receiving a Thimerosal preserved flu vaccine, is 0.06 percent. Multiplying the number of brain cells in a human (100 billion brain cells) times the model percent failure rate for 3.47 parts per billion Thimerosal mercury (17.3 nM) yields approximately 60 million brain cell failures for a 6 hour exposure time.
It is important to note that this is a proposed model for a laboratory study of cultured neurons. The mercury levels and the neuron failure rates in the brain of a child or a pregnant woman’s fetus 6 hours after receiving a flu shot with Thimerosal preservative are unknown.
None-the-less without information on mercury exposure levels to brain cells, the time of exposure, and estimates of the neuron failure rate in the human body-- the principle of “first do no harm” seems logical and a ban of all mercury from vaccines seems necessary for the health of our children.
Jim Thompson is a registered professional engineer. He and his wife Susan live and work in rural South Dakota. Their first granddaughter Taylor Haug was diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder, epilepsy, verbal apraxia, motor disorder, and sensory integration disorder. Her loving memory has influenced his family’s decision to help protect children from vaccine injuries.