AshtmaBy Mark F. Blaxill

Lost amidst all the furor over the role of vaccines in autism has been the role that vaccine administration plays in causing other chronic childhood diseases like asthma and juvenile diabetes. But the evidence that vaccine administration, especially early administration of DPT vaccine, increases the risk of developing asthma (for the purposes of simplicity, let’s shorten that phrase to causes asthma for what follows) is compelling. If you look at the totality of the published evidence the picture is admittedly somewhat mixed, but for anyone with an open mind and a critical eye, the argument for a strong role for vaccines as a cause of asthma is persuasive.

And for any parent trying to figure out whether or not to comply with the aggressive and crowded vaccine schedules, the message from this evidence is simple. Don’t comply. Go slower than they want you to. Take responsibility for your own child’s health. Because recent research shows not simply that vaccines cause asthma, but that the sooner you give your child some vaccines the higher the odds that your child will develop asthma. These are obviously critical and controversial points, so let’s take a some time to review some of this research.

In a study published earlier this year, a group of Canadian researchers from the University of Manitoba examined the connection between asthma and vaccines in one of the largest studies ever to address the question. What they found was clear and striking. The earlier children received their DPT shots, the higher their odds of developing asthma by their seventh year of age. To be more precise, among children born in Manitoba in 1995 who received their first shot on time (on or before two months of age), nearly 14% subsequently developed asthma. By comparison, among children who received their first shot late (six months or later), less than 6% developed asthma. That’s a “crude odds ratio” (before statistical adjustments for “confounders” that might bias the result) of 2.6, meaning that a child vaccinated on schedule is over two and half times more likely to develop asthma than a child vaccinated late.

I’ve displayed these results from Manitoba visually in the chart below. There are a number of nuances in this display that I want to point out, but the basic message is simple. The sooner families in Manitoba lined up to give their children their first DPT shot (age at administration of the first DPT vaccine is on the horizontal axis), the more they raised their child’s odds of developing asthma (the risk of developing asthma by age 7 is on the vertical axis), odds that by my estimate may rise as much as 3-4 times higher once the full range of vaccination timing is considered.


In other words, earlier vaccination causes asthma.

Now to the nuances (warning for the English majors, if you want to skim over the quantitative discussion, skip down three paragraphs). You can see the main reported findings in the Canadian study by following the trends shown in the black lines and scales. These black lines show the risk (as measured by the “crude odds ratio”) of earlier vaccine administration using the most delayed group as the reference point [Note: for display purposes, I’ve switched the reference group that the Canadian researchers used and assigned an odds ratio of 1.0 to the most delayed group rather than the on-schedule group. The underlying numbers are the same]. The difference in odds between the reference group and the on schedule group was 2.6 times. When the researchers made a variety of statistical adjustment, their reported “adjusted odds ratio” was a bit smaller (it fell to about 2.0 times) but in both their crude and adjusted numbers, the difference between the early and late groups was statistically significant.

One thing I found quite interesting, when reading the fine print in the paper was a more targeted analysis that the authors did for the on-schedule group. The authors broke this group up into three subsets for a special analysis, which I’ve shown here on the same display but, to set off if off from the main analysis, using red lines and scales. This special analysis compared the “adjusted odds ratio” for the ahead-of-schedule group and estimated that the asthma risk for this group was 60% higher than the right-on-schedule group (the results weren’t statistically significant due to the small size of the ahead-of-schedule sample). The authors didn’t report the crude odds ratio, but if one makes a few assumptions, one can align this adjusted odds ratio display (the red lines and scales) with the parallel display showing the crude odds ratio (the black lines and scales). Looking at the data this way suggests that the odds of getting asthma rise even higher when a child receives the DPT vaccine earlier: this earliest group appears to have had nearly 4 times higher odds of developing asthma than the group vaccinated the latest.

[Full disclosure note: I had a pleasant email exchange with the corresponding author, Anita Kozyrskyj. She declined to provide the data that would permit a more direct calculation of the crude odds ratio for the ahead-of-schedule sub-groups and, because of the small numbers involved, counseled against viewing the red line results as a continuation of the black line data. I think she’s being too careful, but because of her counsel I have taken pains here to dissociate the two lines and mark them each with their own separate scale. The choice to align the two scales in a way that suggests a more extended trend is my own.]

I realize I may have lost some of you along the way. But I think two things are critical when reviewing studies like these: 1) respecting the evidence and the underlying data, not forcing it to be something it’s not, which is why I’ve complicated the matter with the red and the black lines; and 2) cutting through the fog of political correctness and fear that surrounds the management of vaccine safety, which is why I’ve displayed the two trends together. The simplest interpretation of this data set, however, is clear and bears repeating: earlier DPT vaccination causes asthma. And the current vaccine schedule, which promotes more and more vaccines earlier and earlier, is demonstrably unsafe.

It’s also important to recognize that this Canadian study isn’t covering virgin territory. Although it’s the first to examine the specific question of vaccination timing so carefully (as opposed to a simpler vax/unvax study design), it’s not the first to address the question of vaccination and asthma. Far from it. Indeed there’s a long parade of studies, covering many different countries, many different vaccines and using many different study designs. At the highest level, these studies come in two flavors. The first are the less formal vax/unvax surveys, the kind conducted by outsiders to the medical establishment who are worried that the insiders are out of control and not paying attention to the epidemic of chronic disease. Without large resources, prestigious institutions and large research budgets behind them, these efforts pursue the simplest path with the least complexity: they go out and find two populations—one vaccinated and one not—and compare their health outcomes. Time after time, studies like these, whether from our own sponsor Generation Rescue, the Dutch Association for Conscientious Vaccination, or the Immunization Awareness Society in New Zealand, yield similar findings when it comes to asthma. Vaccinated children always have sharply higher risk of developing asthma than unvaccinated children, anywhere from two to six times higher.

There is, of course, another class of study, the kind that makes its way into an indexed medical journal. And although the evidence from this body of work is less consistent than the grass-roots efforts, the weight of evidence among this group of studies is remarkably similar as well. I’ve read through a large number of them myself (I have provided a list of the most relevant published studies below) and I will summarize them here only briefly. Suffice it to say, there are a number of recognizable patterns in these studies, most of which (like the Manitoba study) focus on the DPT shot. A few (most notably two German studies) actually have shown a protective effect of vaccination.. But the majority of them report some kind of elevated asthma risk with vaccination: anywhere from 20% higher to 14 times higher. These studies often draw on smaller samples than the Manitoba study(following hundreds rather than thousands of infants), which is why the Manitoba analysis, with a study population of over 11,000 was so informative..

In fact, every study with a sample population larger than 10,000 shows a significant link between vaccines and asthma: every study, that is, except one performed by the CDC under the guise of the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) program. The CDC has conducted a number of studies on vaccines and asthma. In every case, after deploying elaborate statistical gyrations not at all unlike the infamous Verstraeten study, the authors conclude that vaccines have nothing to do with asthma. The CDC never met a vaccine that made a child sick, so not surprisingly, these studies unfailingly deliver the party line: “do what we tell you to do”.

It’s important to recognize, however, that the VSD findings go against the weight of evidence. When reading the bulk of the literature, after you cut through the fog of public health propaganda (no one ever says “vaccines cause asthma” in a mainstream medical journal) one cannot help but be persuaded by the weight of evidence. Vaccines cause asthma. So, just like the autism epidemic, the expansion of the vaccine program is likely to have sparked another epidemic of childhood disease. This one, unlike autism, can cause fatal medical complications.

So as evidence mounts for the rising health consequences of the massive human experiment of intensive vaccination launched on this latest generation of children, it has become clear that the debate as it has evolved has become less about the evidence than about belief systems. In a very real way, the proponents of the intensive vaccination experiment want to avoid the usual constraints of health monitoring and safety management because they believe in the project of intensive vaccination as a kind of crusade.

The crusaders in the vaccine development complex view opposition to their programs based on evidence as heresy. Faced with mounting contrary evidence, not only in asthma, but in autism and other neurological conditions, these true believers don’t believe in rational dialogue. Instead, as we have seen in recent moves by the AAP, they respond to challenge by intensifying their demands for adherence to their orthodox doctrine. They issue professional fatwas against apostates like Andrew Wakefield. They summon their inner councils to demand that their members take a hard line against rank and file patients who dare to question the sacred programs. And in case there be any inclination for independence of mind within the membership community, the hard liners, zealots like Ayatollah Offit, are deployed in an ongoing propaganda blitz to put bright lines of disambiguation out there for any skeptic inclined to stray.

We need to move beyond the religious wars and make it safe again to discuss evidence about vaccine safety, frankly and openly. And a study like the Manitoba effort, if halting in its conclusions  is unambiguous in its result. Vaccines cause asthma. It’s not a complicated problem, folks, it’s what the data are telling us

The only responsible response to data like this is to act on it. Change the way we administer vaccines. Slow down the schedule. Stop harming children with products and policies that have received insufficient scrutiny. Most of all, we need to recognize that, as a society, promoting the health of today’s children and the generations that follow is our highest purpose. At one level, these are rational discussions that rely on data and evidence, but after a time, and at an another level, they become altogether different. And more clear.

The choices we face on children’s health are moral choices. Children are being harmed and we must choose to stop it. We must be prepared to face the true believers, rationally and professionally, but with resolve. Our children deserve nothing less.

Mark Blaxill is Editor-at-Large for Age of Autism

References (studies with elevated odds ratios for asthma risk due to vaccine exposure are noted with an asterisk)
*McDonald KL, Huq SI, Lix LM, Becker AB, Kozyrskyj AL. Delay in diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus vaccination is associated with a reduced  risk of childhood asthma. J Allergy Clin Immunol. 2008;121(3):626-31.

New Zealand
*Kemp T, Pearce N, Fitzharris P, Crane J, Fergusson D, St George I, Wickens K,  Beasley R. Is infant immunization a risk factor for childhood asthma or allergy? Epidemiology. 1997;8(6):678-80.

*Wickens K, Crane J, Kemp T, Lewis S, D'Souza W, Sawyer G, Stone L, Tohill S, Kennedy J, Slater T, Rains N, Pearce N. A case-control study of risk factors for asthma in New Zealand children. Aust N Z J Public Health. 2001;25(1):44-9.

United Kingdom
*Odent MR, Culpin EE, Kimmel T. Pertussis vaccination and asthma: is there a link? JAMA. 1994;272(8):592-3.

*Farooqi IS, Hopkin JM. Early childhood infection and atopic disorder. Thorax. 1998;53(11):927-32.

*McKeever TM, Lewis SA, Smith C, Hubbard R. Vaccination and allergic disease: a birth cohort study. Am J Public Health. 2004;94(6):985-9

Henderson J, North K, Griffiths M, Harvey I, Golding J. Pertussis vaccination and wheezing illnesses in young children: prospective cohort study. The Longitudinal Study of Pregnancy and Childhood Team. BMJ. 1999;318(7192):1173-6.

*Maitra A, Sherriff A, Griffiths M, Henderson J; Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children Study Team. Pertussis vaccination in infancy and asthma or allergy in later childhood: birth cohort study. BMJ. 2004;328(7445):925-6.

Nilsson L, Kjellman NI, Björkstén B. A randomized controlled trial of the effect of pertussis vaccines on atopic d isease.Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 1998;152(8):734-8.

Nilsson L, Kjellman NI, Bjorksten B. Allergic disease at the age of 7 years after pertussis vaccination in infancy:results from the follow-up of a randomized controlled trial of 3 vaccines. Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 2003;157(12):1184-9.

Bernsen RM, de Jongste JC, van der Wouden JC. Lower risk of atopic disorders in whole cell pertussis-vaccinated children. Eur Respir J. 2003;22(6):962-4.

*Bernsen RM, de Jongste JC, Koes BW, Aardoom HA, van der Wouden JC. Diphtheria tetanus pertussis poliomyelitis vaccination and reported atopic disorders in 8-12-year-old children. Vaccine. 2006 15;24(12):2035-42.

*Bernsen RM, Nagelkerke NJ, Thijs C, van der Wouden JC. Reported pertussis infection and risk of atopy in 8- to 12-yr-old vaccinated and non-vaccinated children. Pediatr Allergy Immunol. 2008;19(1):46-52.

Grüber C, Illi S, Lau S, Nickel R, Forster J, Kamin W, Bauer CP, Wahn V, Wahn U; MAS-90 Study Group. Transient suppression of atopy in early childhood is associated with high vaccination coverage. Pediatrics. 2003;111(3):e282-8.

Möhrenschlager M, Haberl VM, Krämer U, Behrendt H, Ring J. Early BCG and pertussis vaccination and atopic diseases in 5- to 7-year-old preschool children from Augsburg, Germany: results from the MIRIAM study. Pediatr Allergy Immunol. 2007;18(1):5-9.

United States
*Hurwitz EL, Morgenstern H. Effects of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis or tetanus vaccination on allergies and allergy-related respiratory symptoms among children and adolescents in the United States. J Manipulative Physiol Ther. 2000;23(2):81-90.

*DeStefano F, Gu D, Kramarz P, Truman BI, Iademarco MF, Mullooly JP, Jackson LA, Davis RL, Black SB, Shinefield HR, Marcy SM, Ward JI, Chen RT; Vaccine Safety Datalink Research Group. Childhood vaccinations and risk of asthma. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2002;21(6):498-504.

Maher JE, Mullooly JP, Drew L, DeStefano F.  Infant vaccinations and childhood asthma among full-term infants. Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf. 2004;13(1):1-9.

Mullooly JP, Pearson J, Drew L, Schuler R, Maher J, Gargiullo P, DeStefano F,  Chen R; Vaccine Safety Datalink Working Group. Wheezing lower respiratory disease and vaccination of full-term infants. Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf. 2002 ;11(1):21-30.



I am glad you know Leslie.

The more people become aware the less places the politicians and the CDC and big pharma have to hide what they have done.


I developed asthma when I was 12. In the us in the 90 that was when Kids get a booster shot for 6 th grade. . . . I was a runner and the fastest kid in school in 5 th grade. After my shots I couldn't run without an inhaler handy or it was in ER visit. To this day, I am not as bad, but still considered an asthmatic

Grassy Knoll

What the heck. Here's one for the "non-asterisked" column:

The authors conclude: "Currently available data…do not support an association, [causal] or protective, between receipt of the BCG or whole cell pertussis vaccine and risk of asthma in childhood and adolescence."


Oops, my bad, each group received DT and only the control group did not get the pertussis portion. Now I see what they were trying to do, although it is still pretty weak to use a vaccine for a control group.


D's advocate,

Just wondering what that study was trying to accomplish. So all four groups received "diphtheria and tetanus toxoids" otherwise known as DTP, including the control group. Then it was found that there "The frequency of adverse effects did not differ appreciably between atopic and nonatopic children...". So it appears that their conclusions are correct, that pertussis vaccination does not increase asthma incidence. But what about DTP? Hard to tell when all the test subjects received the vaccine that is being reported on here in the original posting isn't it. Why not another control group with no vaccine. It would have told a more interesting story.

By the way, the hygeine hypothesis ccould be looked at as a combination of factors including pollution in the "advanced" world also having an impact compared to the "undeveloped" world. That wikipedia article mentions antibiotics as more proof but antibiotics are well known to kill all of the helpful fuana in the gut, something that almost all parents of autisitic kids can attest as to having a major impact on immune system function. Just looking at the hygeine theory, it looks like it does not need to contradict the "anecdotal" evidence that is building for other environmental factors, and maybe it would be a good thing to combine all of the observations and see what comes out.


DA, you shoud read the reference list before suggesting new articles. This one is not a follow up of the Bernsen study, since it's not by Bernsen and precedes Bernsen by 10 years. It's by Nilsson. It's an odd study that uses the DT vaccine as a control group in assessing the DPT vaccine.

D's Advocate


You may want to check this article out. It is a randomized controlled follow up to the one you've provided:


There has been research into the role of pertussis infection in causing asthma. Most recently, one of the studies by Bernsen et al listed above found that pertussis infection did indeed increase asthma risk, but only in the group that had already been vaccinated with DPT.

Bernsen RM, Nagelkerke NJ, Thijs C, van der Wouden JC. Reported pertussis infection and risk of atopy in 8- to 12-yr-old vaccinated and non-vaccinated children. Pediatr Allergy Immunol. 2008;19(1):46-52.

D's Advocate

Thank you Craig and Not an MD for your thoughts.

I would like to submit this along our lines of discussion:

Not an MD

D's Advocate: In answer to your question about why the diseases themselves do not cause the autioimmune condition of asthma, or other autoimmune disorders, my guess is that natural diseases and pathogens are not adjuvated with heavy metals, and they are not directly injected into muscle and/or the bloodstream of their hosts; they enter the natural way (like the nose or throat) and are dealt with by the human immune system as they were intended to be. However, I must state that I am not a doctor, and I am also not a researcher. This is merely the speculation of a layperson.

Craig Willoughby

D's Advocate, that is an extremely good question. I think that the whole point is that vaccines are supposed to trigger this autoimmune response so that the body can create antibodies to protect from future infection. However, with so many vaccines being injected at once, the body is going bug-nuts trying to figure out which antibody to make. Maybe it's not making the right ones, which causes these symptoms you described. We don't know, and we can't know until the government quits treating vaccines like a sacred cow and actually does a real study on the efficacy of multiple vaccines given in such a short period of time.

cf parent

thank you Mark! more anecdotal evidence your way: my child has cystic fibrosis and we are very involved in the cf community. the healthiest(according to the clinic itself) among about 150 cf patients is an almost 17 year old (ready to transition to the adult clinic), who happens to be completely unvx'ed. my son (almost 4), also with the classic cf mutations, uvx'ed, is the healthies (touch wood!) of all the children we know. cf population is quite small, and nobody would dream of doing a study on vx'ed vs unvx'ed among cf'ers as the thought alone of an unvx'ed child with cf is too much to consider for any of our drs. yet it makes sense...asthma is a huge compounding factor for cf, so if it is even "just" increased risk of asthma (due to what? modified immune response? increased inflammation? imbalance between cellular and humoral response?), vaccination very well may be aggravating other health conditions.
that's not even to mention increased risk of diabetes (which is obviously quite present in cf population as well)

D's Advocate

If the vaccine(s) are the cause of an autoimmune issue (such as asthma), why wouldn't the diseases they protect people from also cause the condition? What about all other infectious agents? Wouldn't they also be drivers too since they also stimulate immune responses? Where does the difference come in between vaccine-mediated and infection-mediated adverse immune responses?

Amber Berry

Off topic, but I just learned via an email from the Arthritis Foundation that the rate of Juvenile Arthritis and other rheumatic conditions in children is 1 in 250!

Allergies and asthma, autism, arthritis, diabetes....SOMEONE PLEASE CONNECT THE DOTS!!


My step father was diagnosed with Type II diabetes two weeks ago. Today he was online doing some research and discovered that his blood pressure medication has been banned in the UK because it causes Type II diabetes.

Pharma strikes again.


A correction for my prior post. The first sentence should have referred to the rise in asthma rather than the rise in autism.

Kelli Ann Davis

"And for any parent trying to figure out whether or not to comply with the aggressive and crowded vaccine schedules, the message from this evidence is simple. Don’t comply."

In the three years that I've known you, by far, the most courageous, public statement you've ever made.


Interested in another possibility that may explain the rise in autism in both adults and children? (It may even be synergistic with the vaccine issue.)

The DNA virus, HHV-6, has been linked to all kinds of inflammatory problems, including lung problems. The CDC has yet to come clean about the role of HHV-6 in AIDS, CFS, MS, autism, ALS, asthma, diabetes and all kinds of medical issues that involve multiple organs in the body.

The very versatile and insidious HHV-6 seems to have come out of the woodwork during the increase of all of these medical problems.

If you were the CDC, how would you like to tell the American people that (because of incompetence and groupthink) your organization had allowed a very destructive virus to cause all kinds of medical problems in a variety of patient groups while you acted like you knew what you were doing for 30 years?

A significant portion of the African American community still doesn't trust the CDC because of the Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment. The negligence implicit in the catastrophic HHV-6 epidemic may have all Americans joining African Americans in their skepticism toward the CDC.


Curious - do the increased asthma rates in the US also coincide with the increase of mandatory shots - was that 90-91??

Teresa Conrick

I hope someone from CBS is reading this (or any media that has the courage to report it). It is not only compelling, it is scary.

I have never met more kids with asthma in my lifetime and yes, Kim, I too have a friend who developed asthma in her 30's..she was a flu shot participant until she met me.

Keep up the fine reporting, Mark (and Fed up--vaers graph is a good visual!)as it is turning out that we need more than that proverbial, damn village to get this whole story out and save some more kids.

Fed Up

here's that VAERS Asthma graph


I actually had a nice 3 or 4 email exchange with the author as well when this originally came out. At least she emailed me back, although mainly she cautioned me not to draw any conculsions from her paper and pointed out various potential flaws with her conculsion. My favorite being the arguement that since the native population that had delayed vaccines is less likely to go to the doctor and so are less likely to have an asthma diagnosis given to them. I've seen this arguement before, no one seems to wonder why the unvaccinated never need to go to the doctor.

Anyway, I think this is a tremendously important paper. People understand asthma. People understand that every kid they know has been on a nebulizer. People know it wasn't this way before. There is no controversy over what is and what is not a bad ashtma attack. Once this kink is made in the vaccine safety armor people will start to question more about what other problems there might be.

Fed Up

Here you go, I just ran these numbers on the VAERS DB, looks like declining asthma reports right around the time Thimerosal was removed. Zero reports for 2008 are through April 2008. I graphed it, and it's very stark.

1990 19
1991 46
1992 42
1993 30
1994 31
1995 51
1996 35
1997 44
1998 50
1999 61
2000 26
2001 14
2002 10
2003 13
2004 10
2005 12
2006 14
2007 8
2008 0

Stagmom For Mark

Mark, what about the adults who are developing asthma and allergies? Could that coincide with the introduction of the flu vaccine in the generally healthy population? I have several 30 something friends who all of sudden were diagnosed with asthma and allergies after a childhood and adulthood free of either.


Fed up

Talk about conservative, look at the title of the report. I had to read it twice to figure out if it was good or bad.

Delay in diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus vaccination is associated with a reduced risk of childhood asthma.

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